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Post Mortem And Some OK Advice On Predicting 2001 Winners (And Beyond)Mar 28 '01 Write an essay on this topic.The Bottom Line I recommend the white swan dress complete with the 1986 Cher headset. I'm still trying to figure out why nobody except the Academy and my friend Brian picked Marcia Gay Harden to win Best Supporting Actress. I'm not saying her performance was bad -- I haven't seen it. But nobody -- I mean NO-BODY from Entertainment Weekly to Film Comment to Premiere to Newsweek had this one pegged. Perhaps the Academy is leaning toward established character actresses in independent films in this category. Best Film -- Gladiator. I picked that one right simply because the buzz picked it right. Crouching Tiger was foreign. As in Life Is Beautiful, the academy probably figured that Foreign Film oscar would be enough. It was a reasonable bet to think that since Ridley Scott directed the horribly received "Hannibal" immediately afterwards that the vote would swing to Traffic, directed by Soderbergh doing two markedly different, well-received films virtually back to back. Not a bad hedge. If you put money on Chocolat figuring on the Miramax factor, you didn't read the buzz deeply enough. They were lucky to get the film nominated. Miramax head honcho Harvey Weinstein AND Juliette Binoche both voted for Julia Roberts as Best Actress. Not exactly a vote of confidence. Best Actress -- if you picked anybody but Julia, I have great land in Florida with an ocean view to sell you. Best Actor -- Russell Crowe. I got this one wrong. I figured with the ton of negative publicity about Crowe and Meg Ryan and how Crowe is a difficult actor and a womanizing short-tempered assshole would sort of throw him out in favor of the genial, "charismatic" (I use that term loosely) Hanks who went to great lengths to appear and act realistically on Castaway . Yet he did star in the Best Film. Best Actor and Best Film usually are a match. I figured even that strike against Hanks wouldn't hamper. What can I say? Supporting Actor -- Benny The Toro -- Honestly the best performance, yes. Established character actor working on one of the two nominated Best Films, being directed by the directorial flavor of the month. For once, justice and stars align. Supporting Actress. See above. Please respond with theories and conjectures. Best Director -- If you were going with Ang Lee because he won the Golden Globe, you're in good company. If you figured against Soderbergh because he'd end up splitting his votes between Brockovich and Traffic. If you picked him, perhaps figuring that a double tour-de-force plus working as dp on Traffic would secure the win -- I shake your hand, and I'm glad you didnt' get my money. Best Feature Length Live Action Documentary: Das Kindertransport. I only bring this up for those of us who love predicting Oscars. I should have seen this one coming. Here's General Rule #6 about Oscar. If it's a Holocaust Film, it will win. Why? At least in part because Steven Spielberg loves and often produces documentaries with Holocaust themes. What Spielberg loves, Hollywood loves.  |
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by George_Chabot
by cripper by Stephen_Murray
