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When and What and Where to BuyApr 30 '01 Write an essay on this topic.
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The Bottom Line While it might be impossible to know the right time to buy exactly, there are ways to be pretty sure.
Trying to time the computer market is much like timing the stock market, and based on my stock portfolio maybe I shouldn't be talking. However, I know more about computers than stocks which is why my computer purchases have been good purchases. There are many unknowns about the future of computing, and the usual (and frequent) incremental improvements in home computing might give way to a technological breakthrough without warning, rendering a whole generation of computers prematurely obsolete. Trying to protect yourself from this can be a daunting task, but fear not, there are some strategies that can lower the probability of that happening. What Makes a computer Obsolete First, it is important to understand what makes the difference between a computer that needs an upgrade and a computer that needs to be replaced. There are many components in computers that are constantly being improved upon: processors, memory, hard drives, graphics cards, printers, etc. However, all of those components listed above are integrated into a coherent whole by the motherboard. The motherboard is the backbone of a computer. Every component in a computer is connected to the motherboard, including the processor. The motherboard determines what types of processors and memory can be used by your computer. For instance, a Pentium II processor requires a different motherboard than a Pentium III, and the Pentium IV requires a different one yet. So the motherboard prohibits a simple upgrade from a Pentium II processor to a Pentium III. Hard drives, graphics cards, printers, sound cards, CD burners, and modems are very different in this respect. One hard drive can work on most Pentium II, III, or IV's, as can all of those other components just listed. So a computer with a slow processor might need to be replaced, whereas, a computer with a dinky graphics card or a small hard drive might only necessitate an upgrade. Predicting and Acting on Technology booms In order for Intel to introduce a new processor family, such as the recent release of the Pentium IV chip, many millions of dollars must be spent in research and development. So it is safe to assume that Intel will want to market and milk the Pentium IV's for as long as possible so that all that research will pay off. This is valuable information when deciding to buy a computer. It is often good to buy somewhere between 7 and 12 months after the release of a new processor family. By this time, the processors are usually reasonable in price, most of the bugs are worked out, and there is a good chance that the processor family will be around for at least a couple of years. If you don't need the latest and greatest, but still want something that will last a while, it is good to buy a computer with the previous processor family about 3 to 6 months after the release of the new family. This might not last as long, but you can save some serious dollars this way. Assessing your computing needs - is obsolete really obsolete When considering a new computer, it is important to ask what components are important for what you use your computer for. If there have been quantum leaps in these components than a new computer seems justified, otherwise, it might be worth waiting. For example, if you are using your computer for professional sound editing you might want to upgrade to a computer that has the new RDRAM memory, but don't waste your money just because a whole new wave of graphics cards hit the market. If you just do word processing and the internet, it might not matter that your computer is "obsolete." So the correct answer to the question, "When do you buy a new computer?" might be "almost never." Buying the best infrequently vs. Buying decent often This is a very interesting problem that, after much thinking, I think I differ in opinion from most people. There is this notion that it is always good to buy the very best because anything else will be obsolete the next day. However, there is one small problem with that - the cost. Getting the very best usually costs more than the added computing power warrants due to the laws of diminishing returns. Instead I like to buy a good computer that might not last as long, but that gives me more computing per dollar. Here are two scenarios: Scenario 1 - Buying the best infrequently Assume that the "best" computer costs $2500 dollars and will last four years. Then in a twelve year span, you will need to replace your computer twice, giving you a total of 3 computers which costs 3 * $2500 = $7500 in total. Scenario 2 - Buying decent computers more often Assume that a decent computer costs $1500 and will only last three years. Then in a twelve year span, you will need to replace your computer three times, giving you a total of 4 computers which costs 4 * $1500 = $6000 in total. So you can see that buying a decent computer more often saves money in the long run. Besides, not spending as much money at a time leaves more in you bank account earning interest. Where to buy your computer when the time is right This topic is deserving of a whole new opinion, but it is worth a cursory look here. If you don't know much about the guts of a computer or how to do a lot of installing and formatting of operating systems, then it might be good to buy from Dell or Gateway or some other customer service intensive vendor. However, if you're like me, where you want to take apart your computer and tinker with it all the time, then you should look into a cheaper online vendor. Online vendors are good because you don't have to pay tax, which is usually more than the shipping costs. Often times near Christmas time, online vendors will give free shipping. Again, this doesn't explain all, but anymore would be beyond the scope of this opinion. I hope this helped you in your decision-making process, because it pains me to see people buying computers that they don't need or buying computers that aren't good just because the salesman wants to sell them a computer.  |
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