75th Academy Awards - Who Will Win? Who Should Win?
Feb 12 '03 (Updated Mar 16 '03)
The Bottom Line You only want to disagree with me anyway, so you better read and see what you're disagreeing with.
Another year, another Academy Award extravaganza. Who will win? Who should win? Does anyone really care anymore?
First, I should note that in spite of kristinafh’s ‘contest’, I won’t be giving my selections for all the categories. As I’m sure you know, not everyone in the Academy gets to vote for everything, and there’s a good reason for that. In my case (and in theirs, sort of) there’s no reason to think I know what I’m talking about as far as several categories go, and that’s coming from me, and I know me pretty well. Sound (the movie version) is something I think I’m a fair judge of, but the difference between really great sound, and the best of the year is a distinction I’m not willing to make. The best costume design, as opposed to merely really good costume design, is something that, frankly, I couldn’t care less about.
So, we won’t be looking at all the possible categories here. Many a better person than I will post their predictions, and as far as those categories go, they will be far more justified in doing so.
Also, I always make two picks, in a way. What I think will win, and what should win. Just for fun. Of course, that’s what should win within the context of what was nominated. What really should win, as is almost always the case, wasn’t nominated.
That said, this is the year of hype, and when you’re talking about the Academy Awards, that’s saying something. Even more than any other recent year, the nominations this year are almost completely a result of hype. You could have guessed almost every nomination without even seeing a movie this year. In fact, you could have guessed almost all of them in October, before most everything with a nomination was released.
Also (again), I liked this year a lot. There were really a lot of great movies, and most of the really good stuff eluded the nominations.
We’ll go in a somewhat backward fashion as per Academy Award ideals.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees–
‘Ice Age’
‘Lilo & Stitch’
‘Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron’
‘Spirited Away’
‘Treasure Planet’
This is a good place to start, because it’s fairly amusing. There is more than one nominee in this category only due to some sort of politeness requirement. Nominating only the one thing being considered bad form.
None of these movies have any real business being nominated except ‘Spirited Away’, apart from the mere fact that they are animated films. It will and should win.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Nominees –
‘About A Boy’
‘Adaptation’
‘Chicago’
‘The Hours’
‘The Pianist’
First, the fact that ‘Adaptation’ is nominated here confuses me. I think we might be stretching ideas here. ‘Chicago’ is a little confusing as well, though in different ways. Best Adaptation is a tricky thing really. Different people have different views on what that means, and what it should mean. It’s so tricky, in fact, that there isn’t much use commenting on things much. There’s too much to say. Too much to question.
Should win - ‘The Hours’
Will win - ‘The Hours’
I will say that I like ‘About A Boy’ getting nominated.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Nominees –
‘Far From Heaven’
‘Gangs of New York’
‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding’
‘Talk to Her’
‘Y Tu Mama Tambien’
Again, this is a tricky category. In some sense, this category simply means best story (sort of), and in that sense ‘Far From Heaven’ is the only one that even deserves the nomination (alright, maybe ‘Talk to Her’). In another sense (or other senses), well, it means other things.
Should Win - ‘Far From Heaven’
Will Win - I actually lean a bit toward ‘Far From Heaven’ as actually getting it, but I think it will probably be ‘Gangs of New York’.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees –
Kathy Bates - ‘About Schmidt’
Julianne Moore – ‘The Hours’
Queen Latifah – ‘Chicago’
Meryl Streep – ‘Adaptation’
Catherine Zeta-Jones – ‘Chicago’
I actually have no great feelings about any of these nominations.
Should win – I can’t find a serious position here.
Will win – Julianne Moore
Best Actress
Nominees –
Salma Hayek – ‘Frida’
Nicole Kidman – ‘The Hours’
Diane Lane – ‘Unfaithful’
Julianne Moore – ‘Far From Heaven’
Rene Zellweger – ‘Chicago’
Assuming we can dispense with the Diane Lane silliness, this is the category where the real competition is (as others have said already). There are actually good choices here.
Should win – Nicole Kidman
Will win – Nicole Kidman
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees –
Chris Cooper – ‘Adaptation’
Ed Harris – ‘The Hours’
Paul Newman – ‘Road to Perdition’
John C. Reilly – ‘Chicago’
Christopher Walken – ‘Catch Me If You Can’
I’m not sure that I’m in any better place here than I was with Supporting Actress, apart from the pretty firm belief that Paul Newman shouldn’t get it. He’s just not that good in the movie.
Should win – It’s a bit of a toss-up between Cooper and Harris
Will win – Ed Harris
Best Actor
Nominees –
Adrien Brody – ‘The Pianist’
Nicolas Cage – ‘Adaptation’
Michael Caine – ‘The Quiet American’
Daniel Day-Lewis – ‘Gangs of New York’
Jack Nicholson – ‘About Schmidt’
There’s a fair amount of legitimacy, on the whole, to these choices. Decent nominations.
Should win – Daniel Day Lewis
Will win – I have my suspicions this is where Michael Caine gets a nod
Cinematography
Nominees –
‘Chicago’
‘Far From Heaven’
‘Gangs of New York’
‘The Pianist’
‘Road to Perdition’
As a movie entire you’ve got to throw ‘Road to Perdition’ out. Whatever else you can say about it though, and though there is some decent competition, ‘Road to Perdition’ has the best cinematography of the year. That’s even going beyond the nominations, as I wouldn’t dare in most categories.
Should win – ‘Road to Perdition’
Will win – ‘Chicago’, though there is a slight bit of hope that it might actually go to who should get it.
Direction
Nominees –
Rob Marshall – ‘Chicago’
Martin Scorsese – ‘Gangs of New York’
Stephen Daldry – ‘The Hours’
Roman Polanski – ‘The Pianist’
Pedro Almodovar – ‘Talk to Her’
Quite frankly, I don’t like these choices at all. There are several movies more worthy of the nod this year than some of these.
Should win – Polanski
Will win – I have to go with Rob Marshall, but this is the hypest category of a hype-driven year, so who can tell.
Best Picture
‘Chicago’
‘Gangs of New York’
‘The Hours’
‘The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers’
‘The Pianist’
What is there to say that hasn’t been said? Except that I would have nominated some different things, but actually that’s been said before as well.
Should win – ‘The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers’
Will win – ‘Chicago’
And that's it. I know what you're thinking. Lord of the Rings?! Well, let's be serious. Look at those movies. An epic fantasy, and the second of a trilogy no less, and a musical. Thrown in a semi-biographical drama piece, and a couple of movies that shouldn't have been nominated anyway. How am I supposed to compare those movies to each other? Well, since I can't make any sense of doing it anyway, I have to pick what I think is the best movie. I may pick it, but that doesn't mean I think it means much.
Cheers!
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Member: Marc Eastman
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Evangeline Sylvan Betty Eastman. AKA "Cricket" 9/12/06
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