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Locks, Taking Stock, And Categories That Have Me Over The Barrel: 2003 Oscar PredictionsMar 01 '03 (Updated Mar 24 '03) Write an essay on this topic.The Bottom Line Predicting the Oscar Winners w/o. [This is my entry in kristinafh's "Predicting The Oscar Winners" write-off. Apparently there's some kind of cash prize for the winner, which is nice. Still, without that incentive I'd have probably written up this long-winded piece of know-it-all claptrap anyway. Enjoy! And, as always, the following is for entertainment purposes only. Please… no wagering.] Any attempt to handicap the Oscars has much in common with firing a pistol in an outhouse: it's always a crapshoot. Much of the discussion usually heads along the lines of "Oscar wants to reward such-and-such this year" -- as if the little gold statuette is making all the decisions unilaterally -- when we are actually referring to a vox populi with a membership in excess of 6000. It's hard to get 6000 people to agree on anything, let alone which movies deserve the industry's highest award of recognition. What usually happens, therefore, is that the most middlebrow fare, dressed up as dangerous art but really challenging no one and nothing, gets said recognition. This year is no exception. Thus, the aforementioned crapshoot. Any handicapper worth his salt should know, by this time in the race, who the favourites are, and who has no need to bother writing an acceptance speech. But this being a year when even the recipient of the Honourary Oscar Award was in doubt (Peter O'Toole, you sneaky little bastard!), how could we be expected to pick the winners with any sense of accuracy? The answer: we're not. In that spirit, I've divided up my picks into three divisions: Locks, Taking Stock, and Categories That Have Me Over The Barrel: LOCKS: You best take out a second mortgage on your home, raid your daughter's piggy bank, and make these bets because the categories here are all but decided. It's money in the bank time, and if you're not on this gravy train, then you're just some chump standing at the station with empty pockets. TAKING STOCK: Using my awesome powers of deduction, not to mention a lifetime spent watching the Oscar races and noting who or what tends to win in each category, I've come up with what I think are pretty strong educated guesses. But be warned: they are still guesses. Nothing is guaranteed. CATEGORIES THAT HAVE ME OVER THE BARREL: Do you have a coin? Flip it. You're as likely to pick the winner that way. Herewith, in some particular order, are my picks… ------- LOCKS… Best Picture Chicago - Marty Richards (II) Gangs of New York - Alberto Grimaldi, Harvey Weinstein The Hours - Robert Fox (II), Scott Rudin The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - Peter Jackson, Frances Walsh, Barrie M. Osborne The Pianist - Robert Benmussa, Roman Polanski, Alain Sarde My Pick: Chicago Although I've never entered a hockey playoff pool, I do happen to know the best way to win one: Pick one team with the best chance of going to the Stanley Cup Finals, and load up your roster with their top snipers. Oscar pool winners usually follow the same theory: pick the film most likely to sweep all the major awards, and pick it in category after category. I rode "A Beautiful Mind" to victory last year, and hope to do the same again this year. All indications (i.e., the scuttlebutt, the skinny, the grapevine, etc.) say that "Chicago" is bound to win Best Picture. Thus, you will probably hear its name mentioned several more times throughout this list. Best Actress in a Leading Role Salma Hayek for Frida Nicole Kidman for The Hours Diane Lane for Unfaithful Julianne Moore for Far from Heaven Renée Zellweger for Chicago My Pick: Kidman If the winners were announced in early November, this would have been Moore's category. Zellweger probably got swept up in the "Chicago" tidal wave; although I like her, I don't think it's her year. Lane, from what I understand, really did give a great performance. But it was in a Richard Gere erotothriller (never a good sign). And Hayek (she's only 3 years removed from being a double-Razzie nominee) might just be the worst actress nominated in this category since, oh I don't know, Halle Berry? Which means it's Kidman's award to win. Hollywood has been dying to give this statuesque and vapid actress an award since she burned up the screen in "To Die For". Most thought last year was her best chance (not I), but, proving that timing means squat in Hollywood, she'll have to settle for getting her due a year late. Best Actor in a Supporting Role Chris Cooper (I) for Adaptation. Ed Harris for The Hours Paul Newman for Road to Perdition John C. Reilly for Chicago Christopher Walken for Catch Me If You Can My Pick: Cooper Chris Cooper has rolled through awards season so far, picking up every major prize that I know of. The televised receptions he received at the Golden Globes and the Critic's Choice Awards -- full of warmth and affection -- virtually guarantee a repeat win here. Although, that being said, if Daniel Day-Lewis were nominated here instead of erroneously in the Best Lead Actor category, he'd be the lock, and not Cooper. Best Director Pedro Almodóvar for Hable con ella Stephen Daldry for The Hours Rob Marshall for Chicago Roman Polanski for The Pianist Martin Scorsese for Gangs of New York My Pick: Scorsese Sure, it's far from his best work. And yeah, there were plot holes and pacing problems all over the place. But "Gangs of New York" appears to be the best chance Martin Scorsese has to rid himself of the title 'Best Working Director To Never Get An Oscar'. Thankfully, there are no pretty boy actors (a la Robert Redford or Kevin Costner) nominated in this category this year. And it appears that the Academy and Marty himself have something in common: they both really want him to finally win it. I bet he will. Best Music, Song Chicago - Fred Ebb, John Kander (For the song "I Move On".) 8 Mile - Eminem, Bass, Jeff (III), Luis Resto (For the song "Lose Yourself".) Frida - Elliot Goldenthal, Julie Taymor (For the song "Burn It Blue".) Gangs of New York - Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton (I), Larry Mullen Jr. (For the song "The Hands That Built America".) The Wild Thornberrys Movie - Paul Simon (I) (For the song "Father and Daughter".) My Pick: U2 for Gangs of New York Since "Chicago" is going to steamroll through the major awards, and since it is a musical, you'd think that the most likely win it would receive would be in this category. But it won't. Ebb (aged 70) and Kander (aged 76) aren't nearly as "cutting-edge" as U2. And since Erin's boys wrote a song almost universally reviled by people with ears, that's as good an indication as any that the Academy, not known for their musical tastes, will honour them. Despite the prospect of hearing Bono deliver a self-serving acceptance speech, littered with agitprop and faux-poetry, I'm really hoping Marshall Mathers will take home the prize. Just to see if he has the gall to get on stage in a white D12 hat, and an oversized baby-blue track ensemble, or if he stuffs himself into a monkey suit. Best Documentary: Feature Bowling for Columbine - Michael Moore (II), Michael Donovan (II) Daughter From Danang - Gail Dolgin, Vicente Franco Prisoner of Paradise - Malcolm Clarke (II), Stuart Sender Spellbound - Jeffrey Blitz, Sean Welch (II) Le Peuple migrateur - Jacques Perrin (I) My Pick: Bowling for Columbine After snubbing his 1989 documentary, "Roger & Me", Oscar plans to finally honour the most commercially popular and critically successful documentarian of his generation (with apologies to Errol Morris). You may think that Michael Moore is a leftist propagandist (he is, but that's not a bad thing). But the Academy fancies itself a lefty champion (that happens to travel to and from award shows in limousines). Unless the large contingent of Charlton Heston sympathizers has their say, expect to see Moore (sans baseball hat, I hear) on stage. Best Short Film: Animated The Chubbchubbs - Eric Armstrong Das Rad - Chris Stenner, Heidi Wittlinger Katedra - Tomek Baginski Mike's New Car - Peter Docter, Roger Gould Mt. Head - Koji Yamamura My Pick: Mike's New Car "Monsters, Inc." set a record for highest number of first-day sales in DVD history, when rabid consumers gobbled up 3 million copies during its first 24 hours. "Mike's New Car" made its debut on that set. Which means that it was seen by, using conservative estimates, about 3 million people. Which probably dwarves the number of people combined who saw the other four nominees. Thus, an easy choice for the win. (You want a precedent? Last year's winner in this category, "For the Birds", was screened before the theatrical version of "Monsters, Inc." I wonder what the boys at Pixar have in store to dominate the 2004 awards?) …TAKING STOCK… Best Actor in a Leading Role Adrien Brody for The Pianist Nicolas Cage for Adaptation. Michael Caine for The Quiet American Daniel Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York Jack Nicholson for About Schmidt My Pick: Nicholson Way back in May of 2002, just after "About Schmidt" was first screened at the Cannes Film Festival, Jack Nicholson appeared to be a lock. His work was universally praised. But since then, a couple of wrenches have been thrown into the gears of his once seemingly unstoppable inauguration as this year's best actor. First, Day-Lewis was nominated in the wrong category. Despite wrestling "Gangs of New York" from the hands of young DiCaprio, and carrying it on his back, Bill the Butcher was still a supporting performance. But he's in this category, and he's great, so it could cause Jack a problem. Second, you've got the Miramax publicity machine. Have you seen any of the new versions of the "Gangs" commercial? Day-Lewis is all over it, while DiCaprio makes but a few brief appearances. This all casts Jack's win in doubt. I'm still going with the old warhorse over the flashy young stallion, but I'm not betting the farm on either of them. Best Actress in a Supporting Role Kathy Bates for About Schmidt Queen Latifah for Chicago Julianne Moore for The Hours Meryl Streep for Adaptation. Catherine Zeta-Jones for Chicago My Pick: Moore I've always seen the Best Supporting Actress category as a bit of an iconoclast. It has a history of picking a from-out-of-leftfield surprise over the perceived virtual lock. In recent years we've seen Marcia Gay Harden's win over Kate Hudson in 2001, Juliette Binoche's win over Lauren Bacall in 1997, Anna Paquin's win over Emma Thompson in 1994, and Marisa Tomei's win over all sense of logic and reason in 1993. Which means that come Oscar night, it's anybody's guess. I'm going with Moore because she's well regarded, because she's not going to win for "Far From Heaven", but still has a second chance to take home a statuette. But who knows, really? I wouldn't be surprised to see Queen Latifah take the stage. Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen Far from Heaven - Todd Haynes Gangs of New York - Jay Cocks, Steven Zaillian, Kenneth Lonergan Hable con ella - Pedro Almodóvar My Big Fat Greek Wedding - Nia Vardalos Y tu mamá también - Alfonso Cuarón, Carlos Cuarón My Pick: Almodóvar for Hable con ella (a.k.a. Talk to Her) Before I explain my pick, I have to ask a question: What in Tarnation is "Gangs of New York" doing here? Isn't it loosely based on the book by Herbert Asbury? Shouldn't it then be in the next category down? Anyone have an answer for me? As for this category, I'm discounting "Y tu mamá también" and "My Big Fatuous Greek Wedding" because the former features a scene with two young boys masturbating on adjacent diving boards (I liked the film, but expect the conservative Academy to recoil in terror), and because the latter is an inexplicably successful piece of dogsh*t. I also discount "Gangs", not for being in the wrong category, but for needing three writers to complete it. Which leaves "Far From Heaven" and "Hable con ella". The former is getting notice mainly for its visual flair, and not its screenplay. Which leaves the latter as the most likely winner. I also think it helps that the Academy likes Almodóvar's foreign-guy shtick, and want to see more of it (unlike Roberto Benigni, who will never see the lip of the Oscar stage again). Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published About a Boy - Peter Hedges (II), Chris Weitz, Paul Weitz Adaptation. - Charlie Kaufman, Donald Kaufman Chicago - Bill Condon The Hours - David Hare The Pianist - Ronald Harwood My Pick: Adaptation This category is more commonly known as 'Best Adapted Screenplay'. "Adaptation", having the name of the category in its film title, is thus the obvious choice. However, I think any of the other four contenders could topple it (with Condon, riding the "Chicago" juggernaut, the most likely bet). Still, I'm rooting hard for Charlie Kaufman, and am eager to see if he acknowledges the joke of his fictional co-writer/brother (for many of the same reasons, I was disappointed when Roderick Jaynes didn't win as Best Editor for "Fargo" in 1997). Best Animated Feature Ice Age - Chris Wedge Lilo & Stitch - Chris Sanders (III) Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi - Hayao Miyazaki Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron - Jeffrey Katzenberg Treasure Planet - Ron Clements My Pick: Ice Age Obviously, the most deserving winner here is Miyazaki's "Spirited Away". Anyone who's seen it would tell you that. But 'deserving' and 'Oscar winner' are two phrases not often used in the same sentence. Besides, this is the category that nominated "Jimmy Neutron" over "Waking Life" in its maiden voyage last year. So my hunch tells me that "Spirited Away" will get the shaft. Which means it's down to the two box office hits, "Ice Age" and "Lilo & Stitch". I saw the former, which was pleasantly innocuous. The latter I didn't see, but I understand it managed to scare some kiddies. Which, in a roundabout way, kind of explains my pick. Best Cinematography Chicago - Dion Beebe Far from Heaven - Edward Lachman Gangs of New York - Michael Ballhaus The Pianist - Pawel Edelman Road to Perdition - Conrad L. Hall My Pick: Lachman, for Far From Heaven "Far From Heaven" is noteworthy mainly for its lush aping of Douglas Sirk's oeuvre. And rightfully so. Edward Lachman's cinematography is decorative and beautiful. An achievement all the more remarkable when you consider he was pulling off all those great shots on such a skimpy budget. The only competition here comes from "Road to Perdition", because it not only looked great as well, but also because its lensman, Conrad L. Hall (a 10-time nominee and 2-time winner for "American Beauty" and "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid"), died on January 4th of this year. Never discount sentimentality in these races. Best Art Direction-Set Decoration Chicago - John Myhre, Gordon Sim Frida - Felipe Fernández del Paso (I), Hannia Robledo Gangs of New York - Dante Ferretti, Francesca LoSchiavo The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - Grant Major, Dan Hennah, Alan Lee (II) Road to Perdition - Dennis Gassner, Nancy Haigh My Pick: Chicago The next three categories I'm listing will all be won by "Chicago". I have no other explanation than they'll be dominated by the power of its momentum. Best Costume Design Chicago - Colleen Atwood Frida - Julie Weiss Gangs of New York - Sandy Powell (II) The Hours - Ann Roth (I) The Pianist - Anna B. Sheppard My Pick: Chicago See above. Best Editing Chicago - Martin Walsh (I) Gangs of New York - Thelma Schoonmaker The Hours - Peter Boyle (II) The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - D. Michael Horton The Pianist - Hervé de Luze My Pick: Chicago See above. But also, see the fact that this category is usually won by the film with the most cuts, and not necessarily the best cuts. I haven't seen "Chicago" yet, but from what I understand one of the major criticisms against it is the overuse of MTV-and-"Moulin Rouge"-style editing. Best Sound Chicago - David Lee (III), Michael Minkler, Dominic Tavella Gangs of New York - Ivan Sharrock, Tom Fleischman, Eugene Gearty The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - Christopher Boyes (I), Michael Hedges (I), Michael Semanick, Hammond Peek Road to Perdition - Bob Beemer, Scott Millan, John Pritchett (I) Spider-Man - Kevin O'Connell (II), Greg P. Russell, Ed Novick My Pick: The Two Towers Just like the Best Editing category is dominated by the films with the most cuts, the Best Sound category is usually dominated by the loudest films. "The Two Towers" is thus the clear favourite (not that it doesn't deserve the award, mind you; see my comments in the Best Animated Feature category for clarification of the term 'deserve'). Best Music, Original Score Catch Me If You Can - John Williams Far from Heaven - Elmer Bernstein Frida - Elliot Goldenthal The Hours - Philip Glass Road to Perdition - Thomas Newman My Pick: Elmer Bernstein, for Far From Heaven My gut tells me that Bernstein, an 11-time nominee and 1-time winner, will beat out John Williams, a 30-time nominee and 5-time winner. My gut really has no evidence to back this up, other than to say that Bernstein's music for "Far From Heaven" was so integral to that film's ability to capture the mood and tone of 1950s America, and, more specifically, the oeuvre of Douglas Sirk. Best Effects, Sound Effects Editing The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - Ethan Van der Ryn, Mike Hopkins Minority Report - Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom Road to Perdition - Scott Hecker My Pick: The Two Towers Just like the Best Editing statuette goes to the editor who had to make the most cuts, the Best Sound Effects Editing generally goes to the loudest film. Now I'm not saying that "The Two Towers" wasn't expertly sound edited (except for "The Conversation", name a film that you can claim has been), but its win won't necessarily be based on merit. Best Effects, Visual Effects The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers - Jim Rygiel, Joe Letteri, Randall William Cook, Alex Funke (I) Spider-Man - John Frazier (I), John Dykstra, Anthony LaMolinara, Scott Stokdyk Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones - Rob Coleman, Pablo Helman, John Knoll, Ben Snow My Pick: The Two Towers My only rationale here is that the visual effects in "The Two Towers" actually served to advance a good movie, while the other two nominees were mainly eye-candy covering up sorry cinema. Best Documentary: Short Subject The Collector of Bedford Street - Alice Elliott (I) Mighty Times: The Legacy of Rosa Parks (2002) - Robert Hudson (II), Robert Houston (I) Twin Towers - Bill Guttentag, Robert David Port Why Can't We Be a Family Again? - Roger Weisberg, Murray Nossel My Pick: Twin Towers And not just because I'm on a "towers" role. I figure that 9/11 still resonates strongly through the hearts and minds of most Americans (rightfully so), and that momentum will carry "Twin Towers" (about a pair of brothers, one a firefighter and one a police officer, lost in the World Trade Centre wreckage) to a win. …CATEGORIES THAT HAVE ME OVER A BARREL Best Foreign Language Film Ying xiong (China) Mies vailla menneisyyttä (Finland) Nirgendwo in Afrika (Germany) El Crimen del padre Amaro (Mexico) Zus & zo (Netherlands) My Pick: Mies vailla menneisyyttä (Finland) Here's what I did: I went to the Internet Movie Database, to see how many of its users voted for each of these movies. I figured that the one most seen would have the best chance of winning. And since the obvious popular favourite -- Almodóvar's "Talk to Her" -- was ineligible (Spain gave its one allotted nomination to absent "Mondays in the Sun"), this was the best way I could figure to suss out the winner. Best Makeup Frida - Beatrice De Alba, John E. Jackson (I) The Time Machine - John M. Elliott Jr., Barbara Lorenz My Pick: Frida I'm not really sure what "The Time Machine" is doing here. Wasn't the film universally reviled? Were the Morlocks really better creations than, say, the Uruk-hai? Elliott and Lorenz, both first-time nominees, don't have the "whatever they do is fine by us" cache that would guarantee them an automatic nomination in any year. What gives? Needless to say, I think "Frida's" unibrow will take the award (which leaves one wondering: What happened to Kidman's Woolf nose?) (Actually, I wouldn't be surprised if, like 1983, the Academy decided there wasn't a nominee deserving of the win, and cancelled this award altogether.) Best Short Film: Live Action Fait d'hiver - Dirk Beliën, Anja Daelemans J'attendrai le suivant... - Philippe Orreindy, Thomas Gaudin Inja (Dog) - Steve Pasvolsky, Joe Weatherstone Johnny Flynton - Lexi Alexander, Alexander Buono Der er en yndig mand - Martin Strange-Hansen, Mie Andreasen My Pick: Inja (Dog) Because… um… The Academy likes dogs? ======UPDATE MARCH 24, 2003: THE DAY AFTER====== Looks like I barely passed, pulling in a 50% overall. By category, the results were less than encouraging: LOCKS: 4 out of 7 correct, 57.1% TAKING STOCK: 7 out of 14 correct, 50% OVER THE BARREL: 1 out of 3 correct, 33.3% I finished 3rd overall in Kristinafh's contest, beat out by d_fienberg and Simply_Crispy. I guess if I'm going to get the bronze, and two others prognosticators are to get the gold and silver, I couldn't think of two finer gentlemen to be bested by. Next year in Los Angeles… -mike  |
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