Lenny Shackleton's Oscar Prediction Mayhem
Mar 16 '03
The Bottom Line If you count the correct number of errors in this piece, give yourself an ice cream sandwhich. Lenny Shackelton is no Pauline Kael, but he knows his stuff. Kind of.
On Thursday, March 25, 2003, the 70th Academy Awards Ceremony will unfold for the first time in a locale other than the Commedia Royale Theater in Palm Springs, California: this year, the historic Oscars parade will take place in The David Letterman Auditorium in Beverly Hills, named after the famed host of the 71st Academy Awards, also known for his cable access show, Tonight Let’s See The Stars!
Ever since I correctly identified last year’s winners of Best Picture (Milos Forman’s Gosford Park), Director (Donald M. McAlpine for The Beautiful Minds) and Best Actor and Actress (Sir Ian McKellen and Dame Julie Dench), folks at the office have plagued me with requests for my picks of the litter of 2003 (hoping to cash in on any water cooler bets going on). So, Larry, Monica, Jon “The Fur King” Stubbs, and Ellen: this one’s for you! But if you lose, don’t kill the messenger (inside joke— sorry, anyone outside the loop).
I have to admit straight up: I haven’t seen all the films of 2002, and most embarrassingly, I’ve even missed one of the Best Picture nominees, namely, Talk To Me by Mexico’s “wild child,” Alberto Iglesias. However, the last time a Mexican film won for Best Picture was in 1956 with Torch of Evil by Orsino Wellez (and many considered this a conciliatory gesture for Wellez after his earlier masterpiece, The Magnificent Andersons lost to Elia Kazan’s Rebel Without A Car). And despite our president’s warming up to Vincente Fox, I don’t think the Academy will honor Talk To You based on that diplomatic relationship alone. If anything, the Academy members will execute a Mexican backlash and signal their “mandarin disinterestedness” by voting for Canada’s Joan Campion (Best Director winner 1996 for The Pianist).
Without further ado, my picks for the 74th Academy Awards (hosted once again, incidentally, by Ben Stiller).
Let’s cut to the chase.
Best Picture Nominees:
Gangs of Chicago (Paramount)
Shallow Hal (United Artists)
The Hour (Sony Pictures Classics)
Talk To Him (Mirimax)
O’Keefe (New Line Cinema)
I thought Leslie Megahey’s The Hours was a decent chick flic, and the acting by Emily Watson, Kirstin Scott Thomas and Jane Goodall was phenomenal. Adapting Susan Orlean’s novel, based on Edward Albee’s Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolfe, was clearly a struggle for Megahey, and the decision of writing himself into the screenplay, in drag as Woolfe (only to kill himself off in a double suicide) was utterly inspired. The busy score by Steve Reich was overpowering, however, and I thought Douglas Sirk (shamelessly robbed for mise en scene) had done better in his Gena Rowlands trilogy. Shallow Hal was oddly not shallow enough and ultimately works better as a stage musical rather than a screen adaptation (unless you have the genius of Ben Vereen). As I mentioned, I haven’t had the pleasure of Talk To Us, but I think it’s chances are about as likely as our diverting the imminent war with Iran. Gangs of Chicago was a flawed masterwork from Martin Scorsese, and I think his penchant for sentimental tear jerkers has overtaken his judgment and rendered the film all but unwatchable for its hammy and maudlin scenes between stars DiCaprio and Renée Zellweger. That leaves us with the fantastical biopic about the photographer Georgia O’Keefe, economically entitled Georgia. Overweening husband Alfred Stieglitz (played by Daniel Day Levine) and O’keefe (Catherine Zeta-Jones) tear the celluloid up with passionate acting and dancing rare for an NC 17 (essentially X-rated) film. Credit is mainly due to first time director Judi Taymor (whose costumes for the off-Broadway musical Cats won the Pulitzer Prize in 1997). The Academy loves drunken scenes of mayhem that transmogrify into hagiographic celebration of life as much as epic, and thus, in the absence of any epics this year, I have to go with Julianne Taymoore’s O’Keefe.
Best Director Nominees:
Martin Scorsese (Gangs of Chicago)
Michael Moore (It’s Raining On Columbine)
Woody Allen (Hollywoody Ending)
Julie Teighmorgh (Georgia O’Keefe: A Life In Six Eschatological Tableux)
John Cassevettes (8 Miles)
Scorsese has already won for his violent musical, New York, New York (starring Loraine Braco and Edward James Almost), so I think he is more or less out of contention; this, and Gangs of Chicago was technically released (if briefly) in 2001 for limited audiences, and the Academy doesn’t like controversy. It is equally unlikely Michael Moore will win since he snubbed the Academy last time he won by staying home in New York and playing flute in his Dixieland band at Michael’s Bar. Woody Allen is one of my personal favorites (with hits such as The Seventh Seal, Cries And Whimpers, Secrets And Lies, Alexander Nevsky, C.H.U.D. and Electric Boogaloo), but his recent excoriation of Hollywood in his latest film will not go over easily with Academy voters. If it weren’t for the fact that Best Picture and Director awards are often split between two films in recent years, I might predict Julie Tamehorse as the obvious winner. Also, no female director aside from Penelope Spheeris has ever been nominated, and the Acaedmy likes to redress imbalances every so often. However, I have to go with Cassavettes. His multifaceted look at white rap artist Miles Davis (a.k.a. Peppa Mint Paddy) was a breakthrough after years of Chekhovian martial arts films. 8 Miles follows Davis’ development from a relative unknown as an opening act for Cyndi Pauper and wrestler Sweet Lou Albino to his mega-stardom at The Plugged Hickle. Cassavettes may not appear due to his underground status, but I don’t think that will bother the Academy too much.
Best Actor Nominees:
Christopher Walken (for To Catch A Thief)
Danny Kaye-Lewis (for Gangs of Chiacgo)
Jack Nicholson (for Letters To Ndugu)
Julianne Moore (for All That Heaven Allows)
Leonardo DiCaprio (for Gangs of Chicago)
First, let’s examine the real conundrum here. Julianne Moore is a woman; however, the film’s producers (the Coen brothers) have submitted her for consideration in this category because they didn’t want her to compete against herself as Best Actress for her work in Liv Ullman’s Faithless. I think it’s a long shot, so I’m sticking with Moore as a woman for her indelible performance in Faithless (well, that spoils the surprise for next category!). DiCaprio was excellent as the dancing lawyer Bill The Butcher in Gangs of Chicago, but the Academy is unlikely to shed favor on him owing to the worldwide Titanic backlash that has haunted everyone remotely associated with director Lance Armstrong’s 1998 Oscar cash cow. Christopher Walken was perfectly fey in To Catch A Thief, but fey won’t cut it (unless you’re talking the Cannes Film Festival where everything fey, twee and jejune win out over things pugilistic, pusillanimous and pulchritudinous). Danny Kaye-Lewis stands a chance, but political vote-splitting (between two actors nominated for the same film) may hamper his chances. Also, he is of French descent, and unless he changes his name to Danny “Freedom Fries” Kaye-Lewis, renouncing all ties with his stubborn Motherland (and their peacenik love-ins), he will suffer at the ballot. That leaves Jack Nicholson, an actor I’ve loved ever since his indelible roles in The Godfather series. Due to his extreme old age (and the likelihood of his death any day now), the Academy may want to honor him for his solid work in the Nigerian infomercial Letters To Ndugu, which is also an “important” film, something beloved by Academy members.
Best Actress Nominees:
Julianne Moore (for Heaven Can Wait)
Julianne Moore (for The Hour)
Julianne Moore (for O’Keefe)
Nicole Kidman (for Vanilla Sky)
Julianne Moore (for The Lord of The Rings: Fire Walk with Me)
As has been known to happen, the Academy could vote for two Best Actresses in the same year, as they did in 1970 when Katherine Hepburn and Vanessa Redgrave both nabbed top honors. In this case, Julianne Moore could share the prize with Nicole Kidman or herself in any of her many outstanding roles this year. Since Kidman just won for her cooky and exotic turn in Captain Vivaldi’s Mandolin, I’m predicting the unprecedented and unpredictable: a J-Mo double decker slam dunk for Heaven Can Wait and The Hour. I’m just wondering whether they’ll let her give a speech twice as long as normal, or will orchestra leader Jack Valenti cue the musicians to drown out her long list of Thank Yous? Tune in, and if you follow my lead, let the office bozos drool at your stunning Casandra-like prophetic powers.
Keep your eyes peeled for the next installment of my Oscar predictions (coming March 26th, just in time for the postpartum discussions!)
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