THE FICKLE FINGER OF FATE OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2003 Academy Award Write-off for KristinafhMar 23, 2003 Write an essay on this topic.
The Bottom Line Well SOMEONE has to win. It could happen!!!...Calculated alternatives.
I should check my e-mail more often. I was sent a reminder. This posting was due day before yesterday. But, late though it is, it is with the spirit of utmost contrition and total disregard for any rational process of selection of winners that I offer these Oscar predictions . Want to know the truth? I havent seen most of these movies yet. My apologies for being late. My apologies for being without remorse in what I am about to say.
The truth of the matter is that I seldom pay much attention to the Academy Awards, and rarely if ever, care who wins them. This year is different. I have just enough knowledge to make me dangerous. I will offer a selection process unique for each category, dependant on my familiarity with the category, the nominees or for no reason whatsoever. You have been warned. Forgive me if I offend your favorite movie. It is all in fun...or mostly all in fun.
1. BEST PICTURE
Why does this award go to the PRODUCERS? Because it is the only way they can ever win an award, ever....for whatever it is they do.
CHICAGO , Marty Richards- This producer is getting a first ever mention by the Academy.
GANGS OF NEW YORK, Alberto Grimaldi, Harvey Wrisntein-Girimaldis first, Weinstein already won one, for SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE. Nah, pass him by.
THE HOURS, Robert Fox, Scott Rundin- first time ever nominees. Fox produced IRIS another wonderful movie.
THE LORD OF THE RINGS THE TWO TOWERS, Peter Jackson and his band of merry elves.......,
THE PIANIST Robert Bemnussa, Roman Polanski and some other Polish person
MY CHOICE: None of the above? ( All right you say, what would you know? You never saw any of them! ) So the award has to be made by the DESPERATE need for recognition criteria. ...I choose the Polish folks for the Pianist. These other guys will all be back...who knows when Polanski will come out of exile?
My choice: THE PIANIST
Choice of the Academy: CHICAGO
Update 3/23...Chicago is the winner. Surprise!
2. BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Adrien Brody for the PIANIST- First time ever nominee , 25 movies
Nicolas Cage for ADAPTATION Already won one for LEAVING LAS VEGAS 2 nominations 54 movies
Michael Caine for THE QUIET AMERICAN already won two-135 movies, 6 nominations , 2 wins
Daniel Day Lewis for GANGS OF NEW YORK- 24 movies, 3 nominations, 1 win FOR MY LEFT FOOT.
Jack Nicholson in ABOUT SCHMIDT -81 movies, 12 nominations, 3 wins
This one requires advanced math skills. Take the number of movies they were in. Divide by the number of nominations. The Lowest number wins. Or we could just make it an old codger category, and give it to the guy who is least likely to be around next year to gather up another award. The old codger WINNER IS Michael Caine. The lowest calculated number award goes to Jack Nicholson. The crowd jeers. (The highest number to Nicholas Cage. Sorry Nick. You need to be Nominated MORE, man!)
Probable choice of the Academy Daniel Day Lewis.
Update 3/23 The winner is Adrien Brody, Maybe the system needs to be applied in reverse.
3.BEST ACTRESS IN A LEAD ROLE
Salma Hayek for FRIDA, 40 movies, 1 nomination...I would love for her to win it. I have liked this actress for a long time
Nicole Kidman for THE HOURS-50 movies, 2 nominations. I hope she doesnt get it although she obviously expects it.
Diane Lane for UNFAITHFUL 50 movies, 1 nomination. She will be grateful for any RECOGNITION, but this is her chance. Too bad that it did not happen much sooner.
Julianne Moore for FAR FROM HEAVEN , 48 movies, 4 nominations...is this Julianne Moore Day at the Academy Awards? Cmon, one category is fair! Two is too much!
Renee Zellweger for CHICAGO, 29 movies, 2 nominations...I dont know about you but I think this homely chick is doing a bang-up job.
By the numbers calculated from the stats, the winner is Julianne Moore with a calculated number of 12, followed by Renee Zellweger, who is a calculated 14.5 However, Diane Lane was outstanding in UNFAITHFUL. I would have to give it to her, and screw objectivity.
My choice: Diane Lane
Probable Academy Choice: Nicole Kidman
3/23 update Nicole Kidman is the winner. Gasp, faint...gnashing of teeth
4. BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORT ROLE
Chris Cooper for ADAPTATION, 37 movies 1 nomination
Ed Harris for THE HOURS-4 nominations, in 63 movies. Is there an I was cheated again category?
Paul Newman for ROAD TO PERDITION 95 movies, 12 nominations, 3 wins, but only one for acting, (THE COLOR OF MONEY)
John C Reilly for CHICAGO 30 movies , 1 nomination
Christopher Walken for CATCH ME IF YOU CAN -93 movies 2 nominations, 1 win (DEER HUNTER). Walken is suffering from the Ill do any movie, no matter how bad syndrome.
By the numbers, the winner is Paul Newman, who checks in with a remarkable 7.91 and who would also win it for the old codger factor. I mean he IS AN OLD CODGER. Still, if I could just give one away, it would be to Ed Harris, who is outstanding in every movie he is in, or John C. Reilly who is always excellent, or Walken who dont have the sense God gave a goose sometimes.
CW 42. 6
My choice, (by numbers) Paul Newman
Probable Academy Choice: John C Reilly
3/23 update The winner is Chris Cooper . Well it's about time!
5.BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Kathy Bates in ABOUT SCHMIDT, in 64 movies, 3 nominations and 1 win. Awwwww Kathy. A woman after my own heart. I know you were good, God knows you were good-isnt it enough to be runner up?
Queen Latifah for CHICAGO, in 26 movies 1 nomination-Whoohoo! I like this chick-always thought she was hilarious,
Julianne Moore for THE HOURS 48 movies 4 nominations-Winner of the The I got nominated in more than one category award. Now have some manners!
Meryl Streep for ADAPTATION , in 65 movies , 13 nominations and 2 wins. Yep. She just keeps on acting out in front of the camera.
Catherine Zeta-Jones for CHICAGO in 29 movies, 1 nomination-They give awards for THAT? I mean she IS pretty....
For the surprise factor I would give it to the Queen! But for the numbers, It is Meryl Streep. My choice would have been one that wasnt nominated , Renee Zellweger in WHITE OLEANDER
My Choice? The Queen of Course!
Probable Academy Choice? Julianne Moore
3/23 update , the Winner is Catherine Zeta Jones, very pregnant. Major sour grapes from the others should be expected.
6. BEST DIRECTOR
Pedro Almodovar for HABLE CON ELLA 27 movies, 1 nomination (Note-I spoke to Pedro, and near as I can make out he said...Where is the home of your aunt? Can you show me the way to the bathroom?)
Stephen Daldry for THE HOURS-4 movies, 2 nominations
Rob Marshall for CHICAGO ,2 movies, 1 nomination
Roman Polanski for THE PIANIST 38 movies, 4 nominations
Martin Scorsese for GANGS OF NEW YORK, 37 movies 5 nominations
We have a tie folks, So we will give it to the guy with the most nominations and no awards, Martin Scorsese! Actually Sam Mendes would have won it for ROAD TO PERDITION if it were up to me.
My choice- Scorsese
Academy Choice: Rob Marshall.
3/23 The winner is Polanski? I was in the bathroom, but that's what they tell me.
OK I am not going to list all the rest of the nominees, Ill cut you a break.
7. BEST SCREEN PLAY DIRECT TO THE SCREEN
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING -Nia Vardalos. She acted in it produced it and wrote it. That ought to count for something. BUT Nia, babe, we need to talk about titles!
I cant read Spanish very well, so I wouldnt be able to judge two of the others...
Update 3/23 The winner was Almodovar who delivered an anti war plea with his acceptance. He never found the bathroom or my aunt's house
8. BEST ADAPTED SCREEN PLAY
Peter Hedges and the Weitz brothers for ABOUT A BOY
3/23 The winner was Harwood for THE PIANIST
9. BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
ICE AGE-Chris Wedge...it is so cool! (All puns intended)....BUT I hope it goes to TREASURE PLANET, since my son in law and daughter worked on that one.
3/23 updats The winner was Spirited Away (The Japanese film, only showed at NINE theaters in the US, so none of us saw it!..but it is being released to DVD April 15.)
10. BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ill take door number two-Finland. MIES VAILLA MENNEISYYTIA (Man Without a Past)...I like the story synopsis. BUT I dont understand what the heck they are talking about.
3/23 Update The winner was Germany's Nirwenwo in Afrika
11. BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dion Beebe for CHICAGO, 17 movies , one nomination
Edward Lachman FAR FROM HEAVEN -47 movies, 1 nomination
Michael Ballhaus GANGS OF NEW YORK 89 movies, 3 nominations
Pawel Edelman THE PIANIST- 19 movies 1 nomination
The late Conrad L Hall ROAD TO PERDITION- 35 movies, 10 nominations , 2 wins
By the numbers and by quality the late Conrad L Hall is my pick. He was a legend. And he will be missed.
Academy choice: Beebe
3/23 Update. The winner was Conrad L Hall . His son accepted on his behalf. He is unofficially playing out his thanks as one of the Grateful Dead
12. BEST ART DIRECTION
Numbers based on first listed.
Myhre and Sim CHICAGO -13 movies, 2 nominations, 1 win
del Paso , Robledo, FRIDA, 7 movies, 1 nomination
Ferreti and LoSchiavo, GANGS OF NEW YORK 47 movies, 7 nominations
Major, and other elves ,LORD OF THE RINGS II- 11 movies, 2 nominations
Gassner and Haigh ROAD, TO PERDITION 18 movies, 3 nominations, 1 win
By the Numbers, LORD OF THE RINGS II
Academy choice: Chicago
3/23 the winner was CHICAGO
14. BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Atwood CHICAGO-43 movies, 4 nominations
Weiss FRIDA , 48 movies , 2 nominations
PowellGANGS OF NEW YORK -29 movies, 5 nominations, 1 win
Roth, THE HOURS , 95 movies 4 nominations, 1 win
Sheppard, THE PIANIST, 15 movies , 2 nominations
By the Numbers, GANGS OF NEW YORK
Academy pick: CHICAGO
3/23. The Winner was Atwood for CHICAGO
15. BEST EDITING
I throw the nominees in the hat and come up with.....-a smashed hat!
Give it to the one with the shortest run time. That means the best editing right?....and the winner is....
CHICAGO 113 minutes
GANGS OF NEW YORK 166 minutes
THE HOURS 114 minutes
LOTRTT-179 minutes (!!!)
THE PIANIST 148 minutes
You do the math....(Update 3/23...yup! What did I say?!)
16. BEST SOUND
ROAD TO PERDITION, Semanick.. Sound is a character itself in this movie.
3/23 The winner was LOTR2T
17. BEST MUSIC ORIGINAL SCORE
John Williams, CATCH ME IF YOU CAN 189 movies, 40 Oscar nods, 5 wins.
ELmer Bernstein, FAR FROM HEAVEN ,246 Movies, 18 nominations, 1 win
Elliot Goldenthal, FRIDA, 27 movies 4 nominations
Philip Glass , THE HOURS 49 movies , 2 nominations
Thomas Newman, ROAD TO PERDITION , 67 movies, 5 nominations
By the numbers John Williams should win. By personal experience, Thomas Newman did a fabulous job. The music is more important than the dialog.
Look at how many movies these guys do...can anyone say PROLIFIC?
My Choice? Thomas Newman
Academy Choice? Williams , again
Update 3/34. Rats, it was Goldenthal
18. BEST SONG
I pick Emimen for Lose Yourself (and suggest he follow his own advice)
Academy: Whatever was in Chicago
3/23 update. So did the Academy.(I mean choose my song!) Hey! I got 2 so far!
19. BEST MAKE UP
John M Elliott Jr for THE TIME MACHINE
update 3/23 It was the other one for FRIDA
20. BEST SOUND EFFECTS
ROAD TO PERDITION
3/23 Udate. The winner was CHICAGO
21. BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
SPIDER-MAN ( ....hey wasn't that BEST PICTURE?)
3/23 Update...The winner was LORD OF THE RINGS THE TWO TOWERS
22. BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE
3/23 Update. Moore accepted the Oscar, but brought all the other nominees on stage to deliver an anti-war message, for which he received a round of hearty BOOS. The Academy official came on next and looked very nervous. What I will remember from the entire experience is SHAME on you, Mr Bush!
23. BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
3/23 Update. Hey! I got another one. That makes 4!
24. SHORT ANIMATED
MT HEAD, Koji Yamamura (when in doubt, chose the Japanese film)
3/23 Update . It went to the Chubchubs or something of the sort.
25. SHORT FILM LIVE ACTION
INJA(Dog) (Great title anyway)
3/23 update. It went to the Finnish film....Charming Man?
In addition, Peter O'Toole received the TOUGH LUCK OSCAR for being nominated 7 times and never winning.
Ed Harris looked on, thinking, "Three more nominations and I can get one of those!".
For the last few categories, hey, your guess is as good as mine. I am not bloody likely to see ANY of them, am I?
THATS IT FOLKS..... except for
THE FICKLE FINGER OF FATE UNIVERSITY PICKS ARE:
Ed Harris to win the
1. WHAT DO I HAVE TO DO TO WIN ONE? AWARD (update 3/23 Still Stands)
Conrad L Hall wins
2. I WONT BE BACK AWARD and the
3. LEAST LIKELY TO SHOW UP FOR THE CEREMONY, shared with Roman Polanski.
Michael Caine, Jack Nicholson, and Paul Newman will have to duke it out for the
4.OLD CODGER AWARD
I predict Nicole Kidman will earn the
5. SOUR GRAPES AWARD
when she loses AGAIN.
3/23 update: Guess I'll have to eat those grapes myself...or share it with Julianne Moore, who looked visibly p*ssed off.
Richard Gere wins the
6. HEY WHAT ABOUT ME ? I WAS IN THAT MOVIE TOO! AWARD
Russel Crowe to to Win the
7. WHO GIVES A SH*T ANYWAY? AWARD
He will not be coming, but he will get a complementary gold tipped enema bag for his personal use. (3/23 Update. Crowe sent a message through Nicole Kidman. The award remains his.)
You guys all see me after for your high colonic.
Lets see did I forget anyone?
....Good night Gracie.
Note: It took me 8 hours to post this. Epinions will not let me put in html code. I put it in, I take it out, I put it in, I take it out, I put it in, I take....you get the picture? no closing" b", yada, yada....and when I report it...well they claim it isn't so....so it isn't all my fault that this review is lame and ugly.
3/23 I didn't do so good on my OWN picks, but did a little better on Academy picks. I got 4, my predictive Academy got 10. Maybe next year I'll SEE a movie before I write a prediction! But I think they ought to seriously consider my calculating system. they wouldn't have to waste so much time watching movies......
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