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A More Objective View of the Democratic PrimariesJan 11 '04 Write an essay on this topic.
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The Bottom Line The race is becoming a two way contest between Dean and a host of candidates vying to be the anti-Dean. 2nd place in the early primaries will be key.
This is not an opinion piece like my last essay. This is an objective view of the presidential race as it stands right now, focusing on the first few primaries. Iowa - January 19th Currently Howard Dean leads Iowa by a few points over Dick Gephardt. In some polls, Gephardt is shown to be fading and perhaps could be overtaken by Kerry or Edwards, who have both won some key newspaper endorsements the last few weeks. Dean's momentum is likely to surge, with the endorsement of Iowa Senator Tom Harkin, not to mention Al Gore's visit to the state. Dean will likely shoot over 30%, which will be a victory for him. If he does worse than that, or (unlikely) finishes 2nd, he will run into major roadblocks. The rest will be battling for a strong 2nd place showing. If Gephardt falls to 3rd, he will most likely have to drop out. A 2nd place finish is already pretty crushing, but he still has some hope in later primaries to rebound. Kerry and Edwards are really in a no lose situation here. IF they stay in 3rd and 4th, respectively, then they will have done as expected. If either of them do better than that, it will be a huge victory and lead to some momentum in later primaries. Lieberman and Clark have avoided this state to focus on New Hampshire. New Hampshire - January 27th Dean will win this primary without much trouble. He currently has a 15 point lead on 2nd place Clark. Clark has been surging lately, but it won't be enough to catch Dean. It will be enough to establish him as the best alternative to Dean. If this happens, the 3rd place Kerry will have to drop out since all the anti-Dean money will start flowing to Clark. This is a neighboring state and Kerry once lead here, but his campaign has stumbled and will need a strong effort to scratch for a 2nd place finish. Without that, his presidential ambitions are over. Lieberman is trying to make a push here, and if he makes it to 3rd place, it will be a huge victory for him. Gephardt cannot finish lower than 4th, and it must be a strong 4th (at least double digits). Edwards doesn't need to do well here (as opposed to Clinton in 1992, who needed a strong 2nd place finish to stay alive), so if he somehow miraculously finished higher than 5th, it will be huge. South Carolina - February 3rd This is Gephardt's last stand. If he finishes 2nd in Iowa as expected, he will have to win here to stay alive. This is actually a pretty wild race, without a clear front-runner. South Carolina is an interesting state, since it contains a mix of conservative white Democrats and liberal African-American Democrats. Edwards is the regional favorite, coming from North Carolina, and will need to do well or money will start to become an issue. Gephardt has the backing of popular African-American congressman James Clyburn, but how much will that help with Al Sharpton and Carol Moseley Braun also in the race? Lieberman will do well with the conservative Democrats and a victory here could save his chances. Kerry will likely be gone at this point, but it's doubtful he would spend much time here. It's unlikely, but Dean could win with strange mix of the few liberal whites, African-Americans, and fiscally moderate whites. Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma - February 3rd These states, along with South Carolina, are where the anti-Dean candidate will finally emerge. Sooner or later, candidates will need to drop out or the anti-Dean vote will be split, allowing Dean to sweep most of the primaries. The most likely scenario I see is a Dean victory in Arizona and Delaware, a Gephardt victory in Missouri (if he's still in the race), and a Clark victory in the other three states. This will put either Edwards or Lieberman on the ropes if they don't win South Carolina. At this point, the race will likely be a three way contest between Dean, Clark, and the South Carolina winner. To sum up, here is what each candidate must do: Dean - Stay ahead of the expectations game. If he does worse than expected, that's what the headlines will be about and his support may start to dwindle. If he does as expected, he can sit by and focus on fundraising while the others fight it out on February 3rd. The split vote may give him a few victories and only increase his chances. Kerry - Finish 2nd in either Iowa or New Hampshire. A 3rd place finish in both states dooms his candidacy. I don't see how he can stay in after that. If he manages the 2nd place finishes, he should ignore the rest of the field and try to position the race as a two way contest between him and Dean. Gephardt - Finish at least 2nd in Iowa. If he surprises Dean and wins Iowa, he will get tons of momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina. If he finishes 2nd, then a victory in South Carolina is crucial to keep his chances alive. Less than 2nd in Iowa means an end to his candidacy. Clark - Fend off Kerry for a strong 2nd place in New Hampshire. Make a nice showing on February 3rd and position the race as a two way battle between him and Dean. Less than 2nd in New Hampshire will threaten his chances, and make it crucial for him to win several states on February 3rd to stay alive. Lieberman - Win South Carolina. This is a necessity. He isn't doing well in his own region, so he will have to get some positive press soon. A victory in S.C. will do that and give him some momentum (And cash) going into later primaries. Edwards - No pressure yet. Finish 4th in Iowa. Make a nice showing on February 3rd with at least a 2nd place finish in South Carolina. A sweep of the southern primaries on March 2nd and 9th will keep him in the race and put some pressure on Dean and Clark. Sharpton, Moseley-Braun, and Kucinich - None of them have a realistic shot. If I was running their campaigns, I'd try to make a statement in some of the smaller states that the front-runners are ignoring. Sharpton has a shot in South Carolina, but that won't do anything for him elsewhere. It will be very interesting to see how things shape up. All of this could be wrong. After all, No one expected Clinton to finish 2nd in New Hampshire in 1992.  |
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