I Predict that all of my Predictions Will Be Wrong
Feb 27 '04
The Bottom Line Bust out the air popper! It's Oscar time!
When my mom went to the horse track for the first (and only) time, she bet on a horse called Energy to Burn who broke his leg coming out of the starting gate and was put to death before her eyes. Unfortunately, I’ve inherited my mom’s bad gambling genes, but I joined my office’s Oscar Pool anyway. We had to choose a winner in every category, so some of these are pure guesses.
* An asterisk is next to my predicted winner. *
Actor in a Leading Role
Johnny Depp - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley - House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law - Cold Mountain
Bill Murray - Lost in Translation
*Sean Penn - Mystic River
While Johnny Depp’s Captain Jack Sparrow was entertaining, the role was a bit one note. Sure, imitating Keith Richards for two hours is impressive, but I don’t think it’s Oscar-worthy. Sean Penn displayed a variety of emotions in Mystic River from intense anger to crippling grief, sometimes both at the same time. It was an incredibly powerful performance.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Alec Baldwin - The Cooler
Benicio del Toro - 21 Grams
Djimon Hounsou - In America
*Tim Robbins - Mystic River
Ken Watanabe - The Last Samurai
The only one of these films I’ve seen is Mystic River, and Tim Robbins won the Golden Globe, so I think he’ll take home the Oscar, too. His deeply wounded Dave is a heartbreaking tragic character. I hope Robbins makes a political speech.
Actress in a Leading Role
Keisha Castle Hughes - Whale Rider
Diane Keaton - Something’s Gotta Give
Samantha Morton - In America
*Charlize Theron - Monster
Naomi Watts - 21 Grams
It’s possible that Diane Keaton will win because she has already paid her dues, but Charlize Theron deserves the Oscar for transforming herself completely for the role of Aileen Wuornos, a Florida serial killer. The beautiful South African native looks like an entirely different person on screen. I had always written her off as just another pretty face, but it turns out that Charlize Theron is a phenomenal actress.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog
Patricia Clarkson - Pieces of April
Marcia Gay Harden - Mystic River
Holly Hunter - Thirteen
*Reneé Zellweger - Cold Mountain
I find Reneé Zellweger really annoying for some reason, and I’m certain that we’ll have to endure a tearful speech from her. The Academy apparently thinks it owes her after passing her over for her role in Chicago, which I don’t really understand because Catherine Zeta-Jones was ten times better. I’d choose Holly Hunter if it were up to me. I thought Patricia Clarkson was better in The Station Agent.
Directing
Fernando Meirelles - City of God
*Peter Jackson - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Sofia Coppola - Lost in Translation
Peter Weir - Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Clint Eastwood - Mystic River
I think I am one of only 246 people in the country who hasn’t seen any of the Lord of the Rings movies, but everyone who has seems to love them, so LotR gets my vote for this (and several other) categories.
Art Direction
Girl With a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit
The Girl with a Pearl Earring is about art and is gorgeous by all accounts, so I almost chose that one, but I’m going to go with LotR again because the New Zealand landscape looks amazing.
Cinematography
City of God
Cold Mountain
Girl With a Pearl Earring
*Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit
Filming on a ship takes a lot of skill and hard work, and the Academy will reward this incredible effort.
Film Editing
*City of God
Cold Mountain
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit
I haven’t seen any of these films, but I’m torn between City of God and Master and Commander. This is one category where LotR shouldn’t win. It’s too long to win an award for editing.
Visual Effects
*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
I’ve seen clips of LotR, and it’s visually stunning.
Makeup
*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Johnny Depp’s eyeliner was pretty cool and so were the pirate skeletons in the moonlight, but I think we have to go with LotR yet again.
Costume Design
*Girl With a Pearl Earring
The Last Samurai
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Seabiscuit
The Academy tends to like period films for this category, and it’s very impressive how they made Scarlett Johansson look just like the painting. This is a tough category, though. The Last Samurai or Seabiscuit could just as easily walk away with this one.
Sound
The Last Samurai
*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Seabiscuit
I was thinking of choosing The Last Samurai, since I’m sure the sword fighting noises are cool, but LotR is on such a roll that I have to choose it for this category, as well.
Sound Editing
Finding Nemo
*Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
It’s on a ship, so sound editing is extremely complex.
Original Score
Big Fish
Cold Mountain
Finding Nemo
House of Sand and Fog
*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Howard Shore. It rhymes with “score.”
Original Song
Belleville Rendez-vous - The Triplets of Belleville
*Into the West - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
A Kiss at the End of a Rainbow - A Mighty Wind
Scarlet Tide - Cold Mountain
You Will Be My Ain True Love - Cold Mountain
I can’t believe that the song from A Mighty Wind
is nominated in this category. I thought that song was silly and lame. Annie Lennox is a shoo-in to help LotR continue racking up the hardware.
Adapted Screenplay
American Splendor
City of God
*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
I’m torn between Mystic River and Lord of the Rings, but, when in doubt, vote LotR. I heard that the book on which it was based is actually fairly boring and dense, so it is impressive that Fran Walsh, Peter Jackson, and Philippa Boyens turned it into such a compelling film. American Splendor was one of my favorite films of the year, but I'm sure it won't win.
Original Screenplay
The Barbarian Invasions
Dirty Pretty Things
Finding Nemo
In America
*Lost In Translation
In America was written by a family, so it’s a sentimental favorite, but I think Sophia Coppola will claim this one for her clever film about loneliness, friendship, and culture shock.
Documentary Short
Asylum
*Chernobyl Heart
Ferry Tales
I’m guessing the one that sounds the most dramatic.
Documentary Feature Length
Balseros
Capturing the Friedmans
The Fog of War
*My Architect
The Weather Underground
I know a couple of people who have loved My Architect, so it gets my vote.
Animated Short Film
*Boundin’
Destino
Gone Nutty
Harvie Krumpet
Nibbles
Pixar always wins these.
Live Action Short Film
The Red Jacket
The Bridge
Squash
Torsion
*Two Soldiers
I wish I’d seen these, but I am forced to just guess.
Foreign Language Film
*The Barbarian Invasions
Evil
The Twilight Samurai
Twin Sisters
Zelarv
If it’s nominated for Best Original Screenplay, it ought to certainly win this category.
Animated Feature
Brother Bear
*Finding Nemo
The Triplets of Belleville
Finding Nemo was a bit lacking in plot, but the visuals and Ellen’s hilarious lines make this one a fish-brainer.
Best Picture
*The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
Lost In Translation
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
It’s an epic. Everyone loves it. I’d be shocked if LotR doesn’t win best picture. But, then again, I’m the world’s worst better. This five bucks is going to be hard to part with. Here goes nothing!
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Member: Becky
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