77th Academy Awards Predictions
Feb 23 '05
The Bottom Line Tune in to the Oscars on Sunday, February 27th at 8pm. Then come back here and tell me how bad I did.
This is actually the 77th Academy Awards, but no category has been created for that. Following the lead of ChrisJarmick and epogurl, I have decided to put my predictions under this category.
The Oscar Ceremony will be telecast on February 27, 2005 at 8pm on ABC. With Chris Rock as host, I'm hoping for a very entertaining show, but I'm worried that an uptight crowd could ruin it like they did during David Letterman's underrated performance several years ago.
When making Oscar predictions, it is important to separate your own feelings on the quality of a movie or performance and solely focus on what the Academy will think. Therefore, I will not only be showing my outright predictions on Who Will Win, but I'll also tell you Who Should Win. Also, I will tell you who I felt was Snubbed of a deserving nomination.
I will provide commentary on all of the major categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay.) I have not seen enough of the nominees in the minor categories to make intelligent predictions in them.
And now, on to the predictions:
Picture:
"The Aviator"
"Finding Neverland"
"Million Dollar Baby"
"Ray"
"Sideways"
Who Will Win: This race is between The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. Personally, I do not see what everyone else loves about The Aviator, but its celebration of classic Hollywood will probably play really well with the voters. Despite that, I think Million Dollar Baby has too much momentum and will take home the statue.
Who Should Win: The Aviator and Ray are both mediocre films that do not deserve to be here. Finding Neverland and Sideways would definitely be worthwhile choices. However, my choice would be Million Dollar Baby
Snubbed: The omission of The Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind proves that the Oscar voters either have no memory (it came out in March) or no imagination. Possibly both.
Director
Martin Scorsese, "The Aviator"
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Taylor Hackford, "Ray"
Alexander Payne, "Sideways"
Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake"
Who Will Win: This race mirrors the best Picture category, although this one is a little closer. Many voters will understandably want to finally give Scorsese his first Oscar instead of giving Eastwood his 2nd. This is a tough call, but I think the wave of sympathy will carry Martin Scorsese to his first Oscar victory.
Who Should Win: No reason to beat around the bush. Million Dollar Baby was my favorite film of the year, and Clint Eastwood's direction was a big part of that. If Taylor Hackford wins for his completely unimaginitive direction of Ray, it will be one of the worst Oscar victories in history.
Snubbed: It's really depressing that Taylor Hackford's TV-movie quality work on Ray impressed Oscar voters more than Michel Gondry's visually and structurally imaginitive work on Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
Actor
Don Cheadle, "Hotel Rwanda"
Johnny Depp, "Finding Neverland"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Aviator"
Clint Eastwood, "Million Dollar Baby"
Jamie Foxx, "Ray"
Who Will Win: If Jamie Foxx doesn't win, it will be the biggest surprise of the night. I really don't think anyone else has a chance.
Who Should Win: All of these are strong performances, but I most enjoyed the quietly powerful performance Don Cheadle gave in Hotel Rwanda. If he pulls off a shocking upset, it will make the whole night worthwhile.
Snubbed: So many to choose from. This is a very strong year for Lead Actors and many missed out on a nomination. Tom Hanks gave one of his best performances in The Terminal, a film I will continue to defend until the end of time. Jim Carrey also did great work in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, but I think the academy is just determined to never nominate him. However, the best of all was Paul Giamatti, whose work in Sideways was inexplicably ignored by the voters.
Actress
Annette Bening, "Being Julia"
Catalina Sandino Moreno, "Maria Full of Grace"
Imelda Staunton, "Vera Drake"
Hilary Swank, "Million Dollar Baby"
Kate Winslet, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"
Who Will Win: While this is not quite as big a lock as Lead Actor, I am very confident in predicting that Million Dollar Baby's Hilary Swank will win her 2nd Oscar. Imelda Staunton and possibly Kate Winslet are her closest competitors.
Who Should Win: If Hilary Swank wins the Oscar, the voters will have gotten it completely right. She gave the best performance of the year.
Snubbed: Natalie Portman received a nomination in the Supporting Actress category for her fine work in Closer, but her performance in Garden State was even better. It was the best use of her natural talents since 1996's Beautiful Girls.
Supporting Actor
Alan Alda, "The Aviator"
Jamie Foxx, "Collateral"
Morgan Freeman, "Million Dollar Baby"
Thomas Haden Church, "Sideways"
Clive Owen, "Closer"
Who Will Win: This isn't an easy one to call. Clive Owen and Thomas Haden Church both got terrific notices for their performances and either one could walk away with the victory. However, I think the voters will once again want to honor a legend that they have so far overlooked and Morgan Freeman will finally be an Oscar winner.
Who Should Win: While I think Morgan Freeman's victory will be largely due to sentiment, it doesn't bother me because he deserves to win anyways. I won't be upset if Church or Owen win, but Jamie Foxx is in the wrong category and Alda's nomination is ridiculous.
Snubbed: Freddie Highmore gave a wonderful performance as the boy who helps inspire the story for Peter Pan in Finding Neverland. I'd really like to speak to those who voted for Alan Alda instead. I think it would be funny to hear them try to justify that.
Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, "The Aviator"
Laura Linney, "Kinsey"
Virginia Madsen, "Sideways"
Sophie Okonedo, "Hotel Rwanda"
Natalie Portman, "Closer"
Who Will Win: We have another two way race here, between Blanchett and Madsen. Virginia Madsen resurrected her career with her critically acclaimed work in Sideways, but I don't think the voters can resist honoring Cate Blanchett for her portrayal of Hollywood legend Katharine Hepburn.
Who should Win: Blanchett is one of my favorite actresses and she was one of the better things about The Aviator, but Virginia Madsen's deeply nuanced performance in Sideways deserves the Oscar.
Snubbed: This should have been a double nomination year for Kate Winslet. I imagine she was overlooked because she played a fairly normal character, but her deeply felt performance was the heart of Finding Neverland.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke, "Before Sunset"
David Magee, "Finding Neverland"
Paul Haggis, "Million Dollar Baby"
Jose Rivera, "The Motorcycle Diaries"
Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, "Sideways"
Who Will Win: Sideways is the most acclaimed film of the year, and this is where the Oscars are sure to honor it.
Who Should Win: I love the nomination for Before Sunset, but Sideways really is the best screenplay of this group.
Snubbed: Laugh if you want, but Tina Fey's script for
Mean Girls offered some amusing satire of high school cliques.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
John Logan, "The Aviator"
Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry and Pierre Bismuth, "Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind"
Brad Bird, "The Incredibles"
Mike Leigh, "Vera Drake"
Keir Pearson and Terry George, Hotel Rwanda
Who Will Win: This is Charlie Kaufman's year. I can't imagine anyone else winning this.
Who Should Win: Eternal Sunshine is certainly a worthy winner, but I'd be just as happy if Brad Bird took home the statue for The Incredibles. I will be furious if John Logan's terrible script for The Aviator wins.
Snubbed: Zach Braff's original and touching script for Garden State was one of the best of the year, but the Academy decided to ignore the movie in every single category.
Relevant Reviews I have written:
The Aviator
Hotel Rwanda
Million Dollar Baby
The Terminal
Feel free to check back in after the Oscars and make fun of me for how bad I did. Although, my predictions really can't be more off base than they were here, can they?
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Epinions.com ID:
briankrakow
|
|
Member: Larry McGillicuddy
Location: Atlanta, GA
Reviews written: 114
Trusted by: 59 members
|
|
|
© 1999-2010 Shopping.com, Inc.