Oscar Predictions 77th 2005 Oscar Night and results


Mar 5, 2005


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The Bottom Line The moved and update (with post Oscar notes) article.

We didn't have 77th or 2005 Academy Awards Predictions category until a few days ago... much too late to be of any use. The original version of this article appears in the 76th section and it has nicer formatting and comments there so I've left it alone. Maybe next year we'll have the place to post our predictions a few weeks before the Oscar rather than a few days after. Psychovant asked me to move the article here, so I'm doing that with a bit of an update.

If you are being ridiculously generous by rating or re-rating this one thank you for doing so. Enjoy.: Who's winning the Oscar this year? Written more than two weeks prior to the Oscar telecast and posted about a week before the telecast.


It’s Oscar time. Serious gambling and office pool betting has begun!!!

My choices on this list are not based on who I want to win—but on who I believe has the best chance for winning the Oscar. Sometimes I’ve done very well on predicting winners in the past and sometimes I haven’t. I’ve gotten better at it over the last few years.

Often trying to predict the Oscar winners has nothing to do with artistic merit, knowledge or even gut feelings about who you want to win—sometimes you would do just as well throwing darts. Heck we’ve all been beaten in office pools by someone who goes to the movies once or twice a year and had no idea what they were doing.
So for what it is worth. . . let’s Handicap the Oscars shall we?

Some background knowledge might be helpful.

WHO REALLY PICKS THE WINNERS?

Oscar Winners are determined by the (approximately) 5,700 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (but they don’t all vote for all categories—just the big 6). Membership in the Academy is by invitation only. Members have hopefully been nominated and been voted into the organization because of their quality work experiences have made them the best in their field. Well, some of them of course are members because they work a lot. The members join in one or more of the 14 different branches of the Academy. These 14 branches are: Actors, Art Directors, Cinematographers, Directors, Documentary, Executives, Film Editors, Music, Producers, Public Relations, Short Films and Feature Animation, Sound, Visual Effects and Writers.

The nominations are chosen by qualified voting eligible members in the 14 branches. Only the big 6 awards (Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Actress, Best Director and Best Picture) are decided by the entire (approximately) 5,700 voting members. You can only vote in categories like Best Documentary and Best Foreign Film if you have seen all of the nominations (and I would presume that is also true for categories like Animated Short and Live Action Short as well). I am not sure how they determine who has seen all the films or not, but they do hold special screenings for Academy members of nominated films. It is possible that winners in these categories could be determined by the votes of a few hundred members (but it’s probably closer to around 1,500).

WHY IS THIS INFORMATION IMPORTANT?

It isn’t, but if you pretend it is . . . Well, just remember despite appearances or your own personal thoughts, the technical awards (editing, make-up, costumes, sound etc) are not actually tied into the main awards to become some part of a sweep mentality that is manipulated by combination of politics and media hype. I suspect that a film, which employed a lot of voting members of the Academy has a better chance of being nominating and winning, over a film that did not employ a lot of voting members of the Academy, but in determining a winner—the hype you may know about a film isn’t having the same influence or effect on those voting for the winners (in the lesser categories

What do I mean?

Actors who are members of the Academy decide who is nominated for the acting awards. Writers decided who is nominated for the writing awards. The big 6 awards are decided by the entire voting membership of the Academy. The others are decided by a lesser number of voters.

SO?

So, if you are trying to win an office pool or professionally placed bet and want to pick your choices by something more reliable than gut feelings and darts, you might want to remind yourself that only the big 6 awards are ever going to be influenced by hype, emotion and advertising taken out in trade magazines like Variety and Hollywood Reporter—and then in a hopefully very limited manner.

DO OSCARS MATTER?

It really is a special honor to be nominated for an Oscar, because you have been nominated by a democratic vote of many of your peers. Films that win Oscars get a lot of free publicity and if they win some of the big 6 awards, public curiosity about the winners can lead to bigger box-office attendance or DVD sales. Image and perception is very important in Hollywood. Awards are a piece of the image pie—but not the most important part. Actors, Directors, Writers, Editors and others can charge more money for their work after winning an Oscar. There’s no guarantee that people will pay you more money however. Is an Oscar winner’s participation in the project likely to make the project more popular with the public and therefore make more money? Is an Oscar winner’s participation going to get the project more free publicity? That’s what matters most. . . money. It is also possible that some people will not approach an Oscar winner for work because there may be an assumption that the Oscar winner will want too much money or is simply too busy with projects to consider another one (this contributes to what is known as The Oscar Curse).

Most of the public will not remember who won Oscars and who didn’t. The best films from an artistic or critical viewpoint aren’t the ones that are likely to win Oscars. Why? Because often the most artistic and best films take big risks and are so unique and original it takes time and perhaps several viewings to appreciate everything they have to offer. Some of the best Actors and Directors in the business have never won Oscars. Sometimes when they do win Oscars it is not for their best work. There are also restrictions and rules that prevent many worthy foreign films and documentaries from even being considered for Awards.

THOSE BIG SWEEP THINGS.

Very few movies have ever won Oscars in all the big categories. Several have been nominated in the big categories, but just because that happens it doesn’t mean there is going to be a sweep. In 2004 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King won 11 Oscars but it did not win in all of the main 5 or 6 races: Best Actor; Best Actress; Best Director; Best Picture; Best Screenplay. There have been only 3 films that have ever swept the top 5 categories: 1934’s It Happened One Night; 1975’s One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest and 1991’s The Silence Of The Lambs.

Surprises at the Oscar often happen in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories. Some consider it a surprise when a Best Picture and Best Director are not awarded for the same movie. This happens quite often however.

WHY AM I TELLING YOU THIS?

Don’t let the Oscar superstitions influence your choices. Make a separate list of who you would like to win. Get that out of your system. Now choose who you think will win the Oscars.

WHO DO I THINK IS GOING TO WIN?

SUPPORTING ACTOR
____ Alan Alda, The Aviator
____ Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
____ Jamie Foxx, Collateral
____ Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
____ Clive Owen, Closer

Jamie Foxx is as deserving of the win in this category as anyone. He’s actually in Collateral MORE than Cruise and should have been nominated as Best Actor for the movie. That would have put him in competition with himself. He deserved to be recognized for the great job in the film he did, and thanks to a little politics and studio manipulation, the nomination as supporting actor for Foxx is going to be his prize. I’ve heard Clive Owen is superb in Closer, I know Thomas Haden Church is wonderful in Sideways but it’s always a little harder to win an Oscar for a comic performance than a more serious one. I have Church as a close second. Morgan Freeman is a talented and beloved actor. He didn’t win for some of his best known roles such as Shawshank Redemption and Driving Miss Daisy. How many great parts are left for this 67 year old? I think Freeman will be collecting the statue.

UPDATE:
MORGAN FREEMAN WON THE OSCAR and gave a somewhat brief and memorable acceptance.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
____ Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
____ Laura Linney, Kinsey
____ Virginia Madsen, Sideways
____ Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
____ Natalie Portman, Closer

You’ve got to second guess all 5,700 Oscar voters and handicap this one like it’s a horse race. In a perfect world Madsen and Blanchett should tie and both win. Blanchett’s performance as Katherine Hepburn was one of the riskiest and most successful performances I have ever seen. She doesn’t look like Hepburn and most realize she did a lot more than merely imitate some of the vocal characteristics of Hepburn in creating a unique and memorable character. But will the voice inflection irritate some voters? Virginia Madsen’s performance was absolutely luminescent and even people who don’t think Sideways is a great film still think she was a great reason to see the movie. It’s a quieter more sublime performance, but it’s also very charismatic. Laura Linney is excellent in Kinsey, but I think it will be difficult for her to win against the two front runners I’ve heard Natalie Portman in Closer is excellent but I don’t think she’ll get enough votes to win. Sophie Okonedo is excellent in Hotel Rwanda, but I think she nabbed the nomination because the ladies of RAY split votes. The nomination is her win. I think Blanchett is going to get it.

UPDATE: CATE BLANCHETT won the oscar.

FOREIGN FILM
____ As It Is in Heaven
____ The Chorus
____ Downfall
____ The Sea Inside
____ Yesterday

If you were a member of the Academy and wanted to vote in this category you are supposed to see all of this nominated films. I doubt many regular folks have seen more than a couple of the films in this category. Sometimes some of these films were officially entered into the Oscar race by their sponsoring country, but haven’t actually had a theatrical release. It’s also a rule that a country can only enter one film to be considered by the Academy as Best picture. That is why for instance Spain’s THE SEA INSIDE and BAD EDUCATION could not both be nominated. Spain entered THE SEA INSIDE into the contest and the Academy wound up choosing that one as one of the five foreign film finalists. I consider the system not particularly good for awarding the Oscar to the best Foreign Film, but that’s how they do it.

Out of all of these films I’ve only seen The CHORUS. The buzz I keep hearing is for THE SEA INSIDE. Buzz doesn’t mean it will win, but I strongly suspect based on the movie and its strong performance, it’s got a better chance than any of the others. I pick THE SEA INSIDE.

UPDATE:

The Sea Inside became the fourth movie from Spain to win an an Oscar.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
____ Born Into Brothels
____ The Story of the Weeping Camel
____ Super Size Me
____ Tupac: Resurrection
____ Twist of Faith

The documentary branch of the Academy has only recently improved its system in allowing more nominations.. There are still some pretty restrictive rules regarding how many theaters a nominated documentary feature film has to play IN to be considered. They have to premiere in a theater and not on television and they are not supposed to play on television during their year of release or they are disqualified (which almost happened to Fahrenheit 911 this year). The films also have to be available for private member screenings (which has in the past disqualified a few films). It’s still incredible to me that some of the very best documentaries are over-looked. Metallica Some Kind of a Monster, Control Room, and Fahrenheit 911 should have been nominated without question. It’s possible Fahrenheit wasn’t entered into the competition at all—allowing for it to possibly be nominated for Best Picture (which didn’t happen). The Corporation is in my opinion the best of the year. Born Into Brothels and Tupac I’ve seen and are above average but don’t deserve to be nominated. I’ve heard very good things about The Story of the Weeping Camel. BORN INTO BROTHELS might still win and both Camel and Brothels are more serious than Super Size Me. But Bowling for Columbine won and it had a lot of humor. I think SUPER SIZE ME is easy to like and will win the Oscar.

UPDATE: BORN INTO BROTHELS won the Oscar. The filmmakers spoke of continuing to do work to help the children of prostitutes in India. Perhaps their charity and foundation will get more attention and more money because of the publicity of the Oscar. Great result.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
____ Autism Is a World
____ The Children of Leningradsky
____ Hardwood
____ Mighty Times: The Children's March
____ Sister Rose's Passion

I haven’t seen any of them. There’s enough films about children that it would be hard to vote for one that is the most touching. So that pretty much makes Sister Rose’s Passion the most unique film of the bunch. It tells the story about a nun who forced the Vatican to change their mind about the role Jews played in killing Christ. This also might be a very satisfying slightly politically vote in response to the hype about Passion of the Christ. So although I don’t have any idea who will win or why… that is why I will pick
SISTER ROSE’S PASSION to win.

UPDATE: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH won.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
____ Before Sunset
____ Finding Neverland
____ Million Dollar Baby
____ The Motorcycle Diaries
____ Sideways

The writing and performances made Sideways a great movie. Sideways also has a couple of the best written scenes of the year and should win in this category. Before Sunset is probably too subdued to have a chance at winning.

UPDATE: SIDEWAYS DID WIN!!!

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
____ The Aviator
____ Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
____ Hotel Rwanda
____ The Incredibles
____ Vera Drake

Considering that Eternal Sunshine had a brilliant screenplay and was robbed of a Best Picture nomination, I think whatever close call might have happened will favor ETERNAL SUNSHINE to win. Yeah, Charlie!!!.

UPDATE: ETERNAL SUNSHINE DID WIN

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
____ The Incredibles
____ Shark Tale
____ Shrek 2

Shark Tale shouldn’t be in here.at all, and I’m very surprised that Polar Express is missing. Where’s Sponge Bob? Where’s Team World Police? Shrek 2 was good, but it was a sequel and Brad Bird was over-looked for his delightful Iron Giant a few years ago. I’m going with THE INCREDIBLES as the winner.

UPDATE: THE INCREDIBLES DID WIN.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
____ Birthday Boy
____ Gopher Broke
____ Guard Dog
____ Lorenzo
____ Ryan

I haven’t seen any of these. So it’s wild guess time. You can try to guess that the one produced by the National Film Board of Canada, or the one Produced by Wil Vinton has a slightly better chance than one of the others,
But I’m going to go with Ryan because I have heard it’s a love letter to the kind Animation that doesn’t involve computers. Maybe it will win. RYAN is my wild guess.

Update RYAN DID WIN.


LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
____ Everything in This Country Must
____ Little Terrorist
____ 7:35 in the Morning
____ Two Cars, One Night
____ Wasp

Usually I’ve seen one or two of these by the time Oscar comes. This time I haven’t seen any of them. THE LITTLE TERRORIST is about a young Muslim Pakistani boy who crosses the border into India looking for his lost cricket ball. I have heard it’s quite good and since it is also very timely, I’ll used my wild guess on THE LITTLE TERRORIST.

UPDATE: The winner was WASP.

FILM EDITING
____ The Aviator
____ Collateral
____ Finding Neverland
____ Million Dollar Baby
____ Ray

Again all of these movies were superbly edited. I think The Aviator
will walk away with it. Thelma Schoonmaker is a deservedly respected editor and she outdid herself once again on The Aviator. My close second choice would be for Collateral.

UPDATE: Thelma and The Aviator did win.

ART DIRECTION
____ The Aviator
____ Finding Neverland
____ Lemony Snicket's...
____ The Phantom of the Opera
____ A Very Long Engagement

We’re talking about the over-all look of the film here. The Aviator began with a 3 strip Technicolor scheme and then went into full Technicolor mode. The scene in the office in Chrysler building had the odd shaped windows. . There’s a lot of meticulously accurate period detail in the film. There’s also the incredible recreations of the Coconut Grove night-club, an early 30s premiere at Grauman’s Chinese Theater and those dogfights from HELL’S ANGELS. Hands down I think The Aviator is the one that will win it.

UPDATE: THE AVIATOR DID WIN.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
____ The Aviator
____ House Of Flying Daggers
____ The Passion of the Christ
____ The Phantom of the Opera
____ A Very Long Engagement

All 5 of these films boast stunning cinematography. I’m going to guess that some CGI use will decrease The Aviator’s chances and increase Passion of the Christ—which isn’t a bad choice as a winner in this category at all. House of Flying Daggers I am told is a very serious contender. I believe the winner is going to be THE AVIATOR.

UPDATE: THE AVIATOR did win.

COSTUME DESIGN
____ The Aviator
____ Finding Neverland
____ Lemony Snicket's...
____ Ray
____ Troy

I’m going to guess that THE AVIATOR with several periods worth of clothing in various colors will be noticed by the Oscar experts. If they decide to go with showy it would be Lemony—but that’s not usually been the case in the past, of course medieval sometimes wins which could place Troy in the second position.

Update: THE AVIATOR DID WIN

MAKEUP
____ Lemony Snicket's...
____ The Passion of the Christ
____ The Sea Inside

It’s amazing to me that the loin cloth stayed on Jesus during all the whippings and torture he endured in Passion of the Christ. But that’s probably more a costume thing than it is make-up. Jim Carrey became the man of 1001 faces in Lemony Snicket and so I’ll take LS to win the Oscar.

UPDATE; LEMONY SNICKET DID WIN.

ORIGINAL SONG
____ "Accidentally In Love", Shrek 2
____ "Al Otro Lado Del Río",
The Motorcycle Diaries
____ "Believe", The Polar Express
____ "Learn To Be Lonely", Phantom
of the Opera
____ "Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton
Chemin)", The Chorus

It’s rare that the songs that should win ever even get nominated by the seemingly tone deaf members of the Academy. I mean Mick Jagger and Dave Stewarts songs from Alfie aren’t in the running? So I dunno… is the somewhat tuneful Counting Crows; ‘Accidentally in Love’, going to win over the new Phantom song by Andrew Lloyd Weber: ‘Learn to Be Lonely’? Will some vote for ‘Believe’ thinking it’s the Cher song? Okay, okay.. I guess I'll go with "Accidentally in Love" to win the gold dude.

UPDATE: "Al Otro Lado Del Río", The Motorcycle Diaries
won.. it was one of the songs NOT performed by Beyonce' at the Oscars (it was performed by Carlos Santana and Antonio Bandaras).


ORIGINAL SCORE
____ Finding Neverland
____ Harry Potter... Azkaban
____ Lemony Snicket's...
____ The Passion Of The Christ
____ The Village

John William is an Oscar fave and he needs another one for his Harry Potter score don’t you think? I suppose Passion has a very good chance in this category. Then again James Newton Howard’s score for The Village was good and he’s been nominated 5 or 6 times before… uh okay THE VILLAGE.

UPDATE; THE OSCAR WENT TO FINDING NEVERLAND

SOUND MIXING
____ The Aviator
____ The Incredibles
____ The Polar Express
____ Ray
____ Spider-Man 2

I know Spidey 2 was great and there was a lot great sound work in Ray and The Incredibles, but I’m going to guess that THE AVIATOR will get this one since there’s so many different types of scenes,d settings and time periods that are covered and each one had very different unique elements to them. That’s got to be very impressive and also probably meant a whole lot of people worked on the thing and if they voted for themselves would probably make this a landslide. (I’m kidding….) I do think The Aviator is going to win.

UPDATE: THE WINNER WAS; RAY !!!!

SOUND EDITING
____ The Incredibles
____ The Polar Express
____ Spider-Man 2


Forget sentiment. Technical branches of the Academy aren’t voting to give a film a consolation prize—although sometimes it might seem like that. I think it’s between The Incredibles and Spidey 2… and I’m going with Spidey 2 because I think a lot of folks would love to work with Sam Raimey on a future project. Just guessing though.


UPDATE: ahhh look at that brilliantly thought out presumed and assumptive logic. WRONG!!! The Winner was THE INCREDIBLES.

VISUAL EFFECTS
____ Harry Potter... Azkaban
____ I, Robot
____ Spider-Man 2

Spidey 2 is all about the razzle dazzle and although I personally appreciate how the effects were integrated completely into Harry Potter, I am not sure you can deny Spidey 2 particularly when you see it against the video-game junk effects of I-Robot that shouldn’t have been nominated at all. Spidey 2 wins.

UPDATE: SPIDEY 2 got the Oscar

DIRECTOR
____ Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
____ Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
____ Taylor Hackford, Ray
____ Alexander Payne, Sideways
____ Mike Leigh, Vera Drake

Scorsese and Eastwood are neck and neck according to everyone and the clerk at the gas station too. Eastwood has won one already, (The Unforgiven). Scorsese has never won—not for Mean Streets, not for Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore, not for Taxi Driver, not for Raging Bull, not for Good Fellas, and not for Last Waltz (or After Hours or King of Comedy or even Kundun or Gangs of New York). A lot of those voting will think it is a very big deal that the finest living American director has never won an Oscar. The Aviator is a superb film. What could happen though is that Taylor Hackford (who worked very hard to get Ray made—but I don’t think deserves to win) or Alexander Payne, could wind up with an upset win.

If that happens, I hope it’s Payne, because getting the comic moments of Sideways just right (which he did) took an incredible amount of skill. I don’t want to take anything away from Clint Eastwood; Million Dollar Baby you could say is two movies in one and both worked very well for audiences in theaters. For me, as I thought about Baby and it’s several flaws, I think the nominations it got are its reward. The first part was a great Rocky style boxing flick and the second was a risky but flawed departure that surprised the audience and touched many deeply. I don’t like to see any film with bad scenes win the top Oscars and Baby has a couple of problematic scenes which I can’t discuss without ruining the movie. However there is no denying how absolutely beloved Eastwood is in Hollywood. Just about everyone in the industry seems like they would love to work with him. Scorsese on the other hand is a very tough taskmaster when he’s working and a perfectionist as well. So, I’m going to keep my fingers crossed that one of the greatest directors of all time finally wins his Oscar -- Martin Scorsese.


UPDATE: Eastwood got the award.

ACTOR
____ Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
____ Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
____ Leonardo Dicaprio, The Aviator
____ Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
____ Jamie Foxx, Ray

Liam Neeson got screwed out of his nomination. In any other year, he probably should have won Best Actor and somehow, he got robbed of even an nomination. The other guy that got screwed big time of his nomination is Paul Giamatti of Sidewise. He’s done some great work (American Splendor for example) and this a part you can’t imagine anyone else but Paul nailing any better then he did. In any other year he would have been one of the favorites to win. Comic performances just don’t get any respect. Next we have Clint Eastwood, who isn’t the greatest actor in the world by any stretch of the imagination, but he delivers the performance of his career in Baby. It’s a performance where Eastwood is very aware of his image and uses it gracefully to surprise the audience. It’s not the first time he’s played with his image on film to turn in a believable and solid performance but he is superb in Million Dollar Baby. He is also very well liked by his peers. Don Cheadle is one of my favorite actors working today. He delivers a great performance in Rwanda. I’m glad he got nominated. I’m sure Depp is very good in Finding Neverland (I haven’t seen it yet), but I can’t believe he snuck in ahead of Neeson and Giamatti here. Although many forget that DiCaprio does a great job when he plays emotionally or mentally troubled characters, and he’s superb as the man of many obsessions and phobias, Howard Hughes. I was reminded many times while watching DiCaprio as Hughes, of Orson Welles in Citizen Kane. The winner in this category will come as no surprise to anyone. Jamie Foxx went beyond an incredible through the ages mimicry of Ray Charles and brought a complex richness of character to the part. He tried to live the part by becoming ‘blind’ and as an accomplished musician, he’s got some chops as well—though his singing voice was dubbed by Ray Charles’ performances (if you didn’t know before the Grammys,you probably know now that Foxx CAN sing). Foxx never hits a false not even if the film’s worst scene. You can’t imagine anyone doing a better job in this role and there’s no question he deserves the Oscar he is assured of winning.

UPDATE: Jamie Foxx got the Oscar.
ACTRESS
____ Annette Bening, Being Julia
____ Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
____ Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
____ Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
____ Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of
the Spotless Mind

The nominations are the reward for everyone in this category except for Hilary Swank. Winslet probably has a better chance at winning than most believe but Eternal Sunshine was released a very long time ago and what is freshest in the minds of most of the voters is Swank’s performance. I think the supposed photo-finish horse-race between Bening and Swank (repeating their face-off when Swank won for Boys Don’t Cry over Bening in American Beauty) is all media and publicist’s hype. Bening is good in Being Julia, but SWANK’s performance is the one that also required a truly dedicated physical transformation by the actress. New-comer Catalina Sandino Moreno of Maria Full of Grace is good and I’ve heard great things about Imelda Staunton as well. SWANK will win and she’ll remember to thank her hubby this time too.


UPDATE: Hilary Swank GOT THE OSCAR

BEST PICTURE
____ The Aviator
____ Finding Neverland
____ Million Dollar Baby
____ Ray
____ Sideways

If you want my opinion of the best movies of the year you can see how I rated the movies of 2004 here: http://www.epinions.com/content_4253589636

We’re talking Oscars here, however. SIDEWAYS has an excellent chance of taking home the statue but it’s a comedy and when you have strong contenders like you do this year, a deceptively light romantic comedy isn’t going to win. I think RAY has a good chance of being the surprise winner in this category, but because it has a truly awful scene, I sure hope it doesn’t win the big prize. Everyone is convinced it is between The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby and that seems right when you look at the Golden Globes, DGA and other critics prizes that have been awarded this year.. BABY has won some of the big industry rewards already and some have it slightly favored as the front-runner. It’s also the movie that has the most irresistible elements to it. It’s genuinely touching and has some memorable performances by the extremely well-liked Morgan Freeman and Clint Eastwood (not to mention Hillary Swank). I’m counting on the more serious among the Academy voters to have had more time to think about Million Dollar Baby and how there are some serious problems with a few of the scenes in the movie---I can’t tell you about them without ruining the movie, but they stretch logic and credibility pretty far. I also think there’s a moral issue in BABY that will rub some voters the wrong way. The AVIATOR I also happen to believe is one of the finest epics ever made and features so many intricate elements done nearly flawlessly that I believe it’s the most deserving. I think it will wind up getting enough votes in a very close race to win the oscar.

My Pick is THE AVIATOR.


UPDATE: I was wrong. I should've stuck with MILLION DOLLAR BABY, but thought there might be enough late voters who would reflect a little more on the films of the year.

EDIT: I can't believe how well I did on the 'lesser awards'. I'm not surprised I missed a couple of the big ones--I anticipated correctly it was going to be a close race in several categories.

ALL DONE NOW. Will the show be better because several winners will not be able to make thank you speeches?

EDIT: I think talking to people in the aisles was stupid.
I liked how they brought up everyone to the stage on the technical awards and then quickly gave them the awards.

Will Chris Rock turn the show into a fun stand-up comedy routine?

EDIT: Several of his jokes and intro's were very funny. However, the format of the show was still pretty predictable and routine. The songs were dull dull dull and Beyonce' wasn't particularly compelling when she performed the dull dull songs that she did. There was no big embarassing production numbers... there was no super flashy opening bit.

Will anyone remember who won or lost four weeks after the show is over?

EDIT: Of course not!!! Well maybe that Scorcese lost and Million Dollar Baby was slightly over-praised.

And let’s face it, if your in one of those office pools guessing the Oscar outcome, no matter how many movies you’ve seen and how knowledgeable you think you might be in ways of Oscar, the winner is still going to be someone who has seen only one or two of the nominated films and filled out their choices in a few minutes, without out a lot of thought.

Enjoy the Oscars and come on back and make fun of how all my assumptions and reasoned choices were WRONG!!!!!




Copyright© Christopher J. Jarmick 2005. All rights Reserved







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