Unbiased Reviews by Real People
|
|
Unbiased Reviews by Real People
78TH OSCAR PREDICTIONS: Macresarf1 No Longer Has the Stamina to Try to Beat the System.Mar 4, 2006 (Updated Mar 5, 2006) Write an essay on this topic.The Bottom Line Macresarf1 goes with his gut (much in evidence lately): his least inhibited Oscar Picks in years! Can't be more foolish using this method than he's been in certain past years. "Short . . . sweet . . . confess ones guilt." These are words to live by, which wander like clouds in my head these days. A concept, too, must be trying to escape. I will not lean to the left while shooting to the right as I have in former years, nor shall I show the magnificent bravado of my Academy Celebration for 2002 pictures (my best Oscar gig, I think, but I don't remember if I won or not): http://www.epinions.com/content_3155402884 My elaborate, confident Oscar Predictions of the past will definitely not be in evidence before the Big Show on Sunday, March 5, 2006. I shall be amazingly brief in commentary (a quality my few faithful fans will applaud), sweet (a word which comes up in my reviews a lot lately); and I shall confess more abjectly than last year that I may know fine movies -- indeed great ones -- but I'm not good at picking Oscars. My old pal and colleague BAMBO-BAMBO only fought me to a draw last year, almost a victory for me, after he had beaten me most years out of the past twenty, but in the last six months, like much treasured in my life, he has been felled by a grave illness. Not so grave as to not have his beloved "Oscar Picks" in my mailbox this week, however. He is fighting his illness with his usual Fred C. Dobbs determination, and these, my predictions, are dedicated to him, in hope that I shall be able to buy him a lunch one fine afternoon this summer or fall in Sausalito. The form I'm using below is one I found on the Internet. It's like a cat's breakfast. But come to think about it, the Academy may announce their Oscars in the order of a "Cat's Breakfast." Now, isn't that THE CAT'S MEOW!? [A little Peter Bogdanovich movie, I rather fancied, but which like many pictures I like, never got nominated for anything.] --------------------------------------------------------------- THE 78TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS.: ACTOR -- LEADING: *Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE -- In a year of many fine performances by male stars, Hoffman's was the best. He WAS Truman Capote, a figure who might easily have been parodied. The Hell with it, he deserves an Oscar, whether the Academy thinks so or not. http://www.epinions.com/content_197369630340 Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK. ----------------- ACTOR -- SUPPORTING: George Clooney - SYRIANA Matt Dillon - CRASH Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN *Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN -- Hurt and Giamatti WERE parodies, and Clooney was doing a turn in a very good docudrama. That leaves Matt Dillon, who stood out in a fine CRASH ensemble cast (which had to wrestle with one of those popular "coincidence is stranger than fiction" plots). And so, there's Gyllenhaal, in a film which I confess I have not seen but intend to before the Ceremonies. I'll pick him on the proposition that, for those who took a chance on seeing BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, he convinced them of the obvious; A gay man can be a he-man from anywhere, and do any thing for a living! Seems to frighten some people. William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE ----------------- ACTRESS -- LEADING: Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS http://www.epinions.com/content_217547050628 Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA *Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE -- In another strong field, the smart money is on either Reese Witherspoon or Felicity Huffington. Without having seen either of their films, I think they will cancel each other out, leaving the honor to Miss Knightley. She has before her a career as long and illustrious as that Dame Judi Dench has enjoyed, and like Charlise Theron, she has shown this year that she can be limpid or tough, depending on the demands of a role. Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE ----------------- ACTRESS -- SUPPORTING; Amy Adams - JUNEBUG *Catherine Keener - CAPOTE -- If anyone deserved the title Best Supporting Actress, it is Catherine Keener in CAPOTE. The others nominated were fine but acting in a whole other movie, or against the main character. Keener's Harper Lee did what she could for Truman. In other words, she was supportive, not that Truman appreciated it. Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN ---------------- ANIMATED FEATURE: HOWL'S MOVING CASTLE TIM BURTON'S CORPSE BRIDE *WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT -- Many think Tim Burton's film was the best of those nominated, but I'm going with the slightly more upbeat Wallace and Gromit. ----------------- CINEMATOGRAPHY: BATMAN BEGINS BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK -- Frankly, just to be contrarian, I was going to give this category to MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA, a costume drama I thought was a pretty boring, long parade of kimonos, in which the supporting actresses stole scene after scene from the heroine. But I decided if I were to be contrarian, I might as well select for the Cinematography Oscar the admirably black and white GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK, which should have been nominated for editing. http://www.epinions.com/content_208448425604 MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA THE NEW WORLD _________________ COSTUME DESIGN: CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS *PRIDE & PREJUDICE -- I agonized between this one and WALK THE LINE, two ends of the spectrum. RAY should have won in this category last year, and so it would, in a way (pardon the pun), be fitting that a country western music picture like WALK THE LINE win. But PRIDE AND PREJUDICE was just such a gorgeous film visually, that I picked it instead. WALK THE LINE ----------------- DIRECTING: *BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN -- Once again, not having seen BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN yet, my heart goes to Bennett Miller for his brilliant CAPOTE or George Clooney and his brave GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK. Paul Haggis' CRASH showed he can handle actors but needs seasoning. MUNICH was Steven Spielberg's best picture in years, but in the end, it is a fussy exercise in angst. One of a group of assassins, after murdering women and children, refuses another mission in order to stay with his wife and new baby in Brooklyn . . . but what are those buildings on the distant skyline? Typical Spielberg. So I go with Ang Lee, who strikes me, as I write, to rather resemble Spielberg. I don't know what this portends. CAPOTE CRASH GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK MUNICH ------------------ DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM *MARCH OF THE PENGUINS -- MURDERBALL and STREET FIGHT may be more important sociologically. DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE of greater impact scientifically, and ENRON: THE SMARTEST GUYS IN THE ROOM the more significant to our future of those nominated, but who can resist the MARCH OF THE (cute but tough) PENGUINS? I doubt I could, if I were a member of the Academy. MURDERBALL STREET FIGHT ---------------- FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: DON'T TELL JOYEUX NOEL PARADISE NOW SOPHIE SCHOLL - THE FINAL DAYS *TSOTSI -- Unlike years past, I have seen none of the Nominated Foreign Language Films. I am just going with my instinct that it is Africa's turn. Dumb but often correct. ----------------- ORIGINAL SCORE: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN *THE CONSTANT GARDENER -- I thought that Dario Marianelli's score was gloriously appropriate for PRIDE AND PREJUDICE, but THE CONSTANT GARDNER was a film, combining Africa and the West (Britain) in an unholy racket; testing sick poor people for secondary diseases, while not treating their common primary illnesses, exploiting them to produce new medications for conditions suffered by affluent Europeans and Americans. Claire Simpson's moody score helped convey the rueful tone of martyrdom which surrounded LeCarre's story. THE CONSTANT GARDNER, like THE QUIET AMERICAN, is a film that should not be forgotten these days. MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA MUNICH PRIDE & PREJUDICE ------------------ ORIGINAL SONG: "In the Deep" - CRASH "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW *"Travelin' Thru" - TRANSAMERICA -- You think anybody is going to top Dolly Parton in providing a song for a picture about a lanky trans-sex-ual? ---------------- DOCUMENTARY SHORT: THE DEATH OF KEVIN CARTER --CASUALTY OF THE BANG BANG CLUB GOD SLEEPS IN RWANDA THE MUSHROOM CLUB *A NOTE OF TRIUMPH: THE GOLDEN AGE OF NORMAN CORWIN: I've seen none of these little films either, but I remember the great Norman Corwin, now in his 90's, who was Orson Welles' equal, perhaps superior, in advancing American Radio as an art form. Anyone who heard "On a Note of Triumph" (in its own way as cautionary and predictive as President Dwight D. Eisenhower's "Farewell Address to the Nation") remembers the powerful emotions it evoked -- LIVE -- on V-E Day, 1945. Or Welles and Olivia DeHaviland in Corwin's "14 August," which assessed the entry of the Atom Bomb into human events. When Corwin, that lean, handsome, now a bent genius, comes on camera to be honored (whether he wins or not), I shall rise applauding at the Balboa Theater, where I'm going to take in the Oscars. I plan to have a DVD of this film. Corwin is still writing, still producing, by the way. If you have never heard of him, he and what he created are more important than any of the nominated people and things on Sunday Night. Check him out: http://www.lodestone-media.com/corwin.html ------------------- ART DIRECTION: GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE KING KONG MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA *PRIDE & PREJUDICE -- Once again, if we are going to speak of the effective use of art in a beautifully entertaining picture, you need go little further than Sarah Greenwood's art direction and Katie Spencer's sets for PRIDE AND PREJUDICE. ------------------ MAKEUP: THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE -- Howard Berger and Tami Lane obviously had a great time with wig, paint and powder in this C.S. Lewis fantasy. I'll take it over the sweaty James J. Braddock and Max Baer or the ponderous latest piece of the STAR WARS Puzzle. CINDERELLA MAN STAR WARS: EPISODE III -- REVENGE OF THE SITH ----------------- FILM EDITING: CINDERELLA MAN THE CONSTANT GARDENER *CRASH -- I thought CRASH was over-rated, brought down by its heartfelt but archly coincidental screenplay, but beside the acting ensemble, what really worked in CRASH was its editing. Hughes Winbone, take a bow. MUNICH WALK THE LINE ----------------- VISUAL EFFECTS: THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA:THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE *KING KONG -- The Big Ape better get something or he'll tear the Kodak Theater to pieces. He certainly is a wonder of special effects. WAR OF THE WORLDS ----------------- SOUND EDITING: KING KONG MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA *WAR OF THE WORLDS -- I asked for my money back on this one (first time I've done that in decades), but I must say that the sound editing kept me awake until I could grope my way to the door of the Metreon's Theater 14. ----------------- SCREENPLAY -- ADAPTED: BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN *CAPOTE -- Fine as the redoubtable Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana are, I'm sure, in their screen writing for BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, I long ago decided that, if there was any part of the quietly magnificent CAPOTE which should not be denied an Oscar (taking into account Hoffman's title role performance), it was Dan Futterman's screenplay for CAPOTE, a true labor of sadness and love. Here's my vote. THE CONSTANT GARDENER A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE MUNICH ---------------- SCREENPLAY -- ORIGINAL: CRASH GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK *MATCH POINT -- Aside from CRASH (strangely, a favorite), any of the nominated Original Screenplays are deserving. After many years of being down on him, I'm going to go for Woody Allen's effort, which breaks new ground, and does not have a part in it which he could have effectively played. Good for him, to recognize the fact, at his age! That's an artist, that's progress! http://www.epinions.com/content_217426529924 THE SQUID AND THE WHALE SYRIANA ------------------- SOUND MIXING: THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE KING KONG MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA *WALK THE LINE -- I sometimes have to think twice in order to separate Sound Mixing from Sound Editing in my head. As the terms buzz around n' around like crazy rocker bees, I can imagine the task of creating the illusion Joaquin Phoenix and Reece Witherspoon were Johnny Cash and June Carter Cash, on stage; it defines Sound Mixing for me. WAR OF THE WORLDS ------------------ SHORT FILM -- LIVE ACTION: AUSREISSER (THE RUNAWAY) CASHBACK THE LAST FARM OUR TIME IS UP *SIX SHOOTER -- Frankly, I haven't seen any of these little pictures, but I have heard SOMETHING about SIX SHOOTER. Understand? ------------------ BEST PICTURE: *BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN -- I really think CAPOTE or GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK are probably better films, but I haven't seen BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN yet, and people I trust are toasting it with Rye Whiskey. [In case you were not aware, Rye Whiskey is the new drink of choice among drunken hip young critics -- young dogs and hot babes, in general. Forget the Tequila, Single Malt Scotch or Designer Vodka!] So I caved in. It's not the first time. CAPOTE CRASH GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK MUNICH ----------------- SHORT FILM -- ANIMATED: BADGERED THE MOON AND THE SON: AN IMAGINED CONVERSATION THE MYSTERIOUS GEOGRAPHIC EXPLORATIONS OF JASPER MORELLO *ONE MAN BAND -- ["What's Animated Short Films doing at the end of my Oscar Ceremonies?"] I have no idea what any of the short animations are about, but a documentary with this title was made about Orson Welles a few years ago. And I am a One Man Band myself. So it's a good one to go out on! Hand me the damn envelop! ---------------- For those who wish to keep score of "The Titanic BAMBO-BAMBO VS Macresarf1 Oscar Contest," in real time, here are our (only 13) picks, side by side: BAMBO -BAMBO Macresarf1 PICTURE: Brokeback Mountain -- Brokeback Mountain ACTOR: Phillip Seymore Hoffman -- P.S. Hoffman ACTRESS: Felicity Huffman -- Keira Knightly SUPPORTING ACTOR: Paul Giamatti -- Jake Gyllenhaal SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Rachael Weisz -- Catherine Keener DIRECTOR: Ang Lee-- -- Ang Lee ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Brokeback Mountain -- Capote ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Good Nignt and Good Luck -- Match Point ANIMATED FEATURE: Corpse Bride -- Wallace & Gromit: Curse ART DIRECTION: Good Night and Good Luck -- Pride and Prejudice CINEMATOGRAPHY: BrokebacK Mountain -- Good Nightand Good Luck COSTUMES: Pride and Prejudice -- Pride and Prejudice EDITING: Cinderella Man -- Crash VISUAL EFFECTS: King Kong -- King Kong ------------------------ Remember the Prize is Lunch on the water in Sausalito, this Fall. Be sure you bring BAMBO-BAMBO and a brown paper bag for me and one for yourself. You want more, looking across the Bay toward San Francisco, during Indian Summer??? You must think you deserve an Oscar, too! [Macresarf1] UPDATE: Sunday, 10 a.m., Sunday, March 5, 2006: Seven hours to go (P.S.T) -- I saw BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN last night, had to sit in the first row. That may have influenced my opinion. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is a beautifully austere adaptation of a great American short story. I'm not sure if that makes it a great motion picture, no matter the breakthrough in subject matter it represents, no matter what they used to say about what a good movie a short story can make. I would not grieve if it were selected Best Picture, but, in my heart of hearts, CAPOTE is my choice, no matter what I write at Epinions, and for that matter, GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK is a better movie. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, fully recognizing the three major performances, its keen observation and dialogue, its important theme, its rawly beautiful Western photography, in my opinion, is about as good as MUNICH, and both of them are better than CRASH. BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is a film about a cruelly "romantic" triangle. A question of love is the joker, as it often is for men. ----------------- P.S. Actually, this year was a pretty good one for the Academy. When the Republic is threatened, Hollywood often rises to the occasion better than the politicians or, I'm afraid, the populace, but THE POWER OF NIGHTMARES: THE RISE OF THE POLITICS OF FEAR was the best, the most revelatory picture I saw last year. It was shown hardly anywhere outside of New York and San Francisco, and will not have a general release in America, so far as I know at present. You can buy a bootlegged copy or two on Ebay. Really. REALLY! So much for the Academy! -- a.f. Read my review: http://www.epinions.com/content_193667698308 ---------------- But please, also thank the gracious, industrious Movie Category Leader Pychovant (Shannon), who answered my prayer to her, by tickling the Epinions management into hoisting "Predictions for the 78th Academy Awards" into position, with only 72 hours to spare!  |
| Read all comments (26)|Write your own comment |
- Top 100
by befus
by Freak369
by trailhound
