Here's how everyone did on their predictions...


Mar 6, 2006


The Bottom Line A tally of how the Epinions.com participants did in predicting this year's Academy Award winners!

I've decided to do something different, to tally the winners from tonight's 78th Annual Academy Awards, celebrating "the best" cinema had to offer in 2005.

But I'll go one step further!

Instead of working on the homework I just can't get into right now (an outline for a screenplay I'm developing in one of my 3rd year creative writing courses on screenwriting), I've decided to tally up how all Epinions.com users did with the predictions they posted under this topic before the awards show, to see how we all did!

As you may know, earlier today I posted my own predictions for this year's awards show. In addition to myself, the following Epinions.com users also submitted their predictions:

briankrakow - Predictions Posted MARCH 4, 2006
ChrisJarmick - Predictions Posted March 4, 2006
macresarf1 - Predictions Posted March 4, 2006

macresarf1 makes reference to his buddy BAMBO-BAMBO, and provides that person's predictions in his article, so I'll also throw BAMBO-BAMBO into my tally mix as well.

Finally, not only will I tally how we did against each other here at Epinions.com, but I'll tally how we did when compared to the great misogynistic Roger Ebert, who sadly, does not post at Epinions.com. Ok, I'll admit, Ebert's not a misogynist - I just like the sound of the word - misogynistic. No, Mr. Ebert has his own site hosted by some fancy American newspaper, The Chicago Sun Times I think. You can find Roger Ebert's predictions here:

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060218/OSCARS/602190301

One final note regarding how my tally will work. Some posters went back in and changed their predictions after making their initial predictions. In those cases, I went with their first gut instinct, rather than their second guess. So your gut instinct is what will count toward your tally. I mean, Roger Ebert didn't go back in and write "Oh, I think I'm going to have to change my prediction, all my movie buddies say this will win, so I think movieX will win too...," then we shouldn't be able to either. Sorry.

Now, this would be a lot easier if we could create a table, but that kind of HTML isn't allowed at Epinions.com. So here we go...


1. Performance by an actor in a leading role

- Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics)
- Terrence Howard in "Hustle & Flow" (Paramount Classics, MTV Films and New Deal Entertainment)
- Heath Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features)
- Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox)
- David Strathairn in "Good Night, and Good Luck." (Warner Independent Pictures)

Winner: Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics)

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Philip Seymour Hoffman
briankrakow - Philip Seymour Hoffman
ChrisJarmick - Philip Seymour Hoffman
firstcontact21 - Philip Seymour Hoffman
macresarf1 - Philip Seymour Hoffman
rogerebert.com - Philip Seymour Hoffman

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 1 / 1 = 100%
briankrakow - 1 / 1 = 100%
ChrisJarmick - 1 / 1 = 100%
firstcontact21 - 1 / 1 = 100%
macresarf1 - 1 / 1 = 100%
rogerebert.com - 1 / 1 = 100%

2. Performance by an actor in a supporting role

- George Clooney in "Syriana" (Warner Bros.)
- Matt Dillon in "Crash" (Lions Gate)
- Paul Giamatti in "Cinderella Man" (Universal and Miramax)
- Jake Gyllenhaal in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features
- William Hurt in "A History of Violence" (New Line)

Winner: George Clooney in "Syriana" (Warner Bros.)

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Paul Giamatti
briankrakow - George Clooney
ChrisJarmick - Paul Giamatti
firstcontact21 - George Clooney
macresarf1 - Jake Gyllenhaal
rogerebert.com - George Clooney

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 1 / 2 = 50%
briankrakow - 2 / 2 = 100%
ChrisJarmick - 1 / 2 = 50%
firstcontact21 - 2 / 2 = 100%
macresarf1 - 1 / 2 = 50%
rogerebert.com - 2 / 2 = 100%

3. Performance by an actress in a leading role

- Judi Dench in "Mrs. Henderson Presents" (The Weinstein Company)
- Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica" (The Weinstein Company and IFC Films)
- Keira Knightley in "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features)
- Charlize Theron in "North Country" (Warner Bros.)
- Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox)

Winner: Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox)

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Felicity Huffman
briankrakow - Reese Witherspoon
ChrisJarmick - Reese Witherspoon
firstcontact21 - Reese Witherspoon
macresarf1 - Keira Knightly
rogerebert.com - Reese Witherspoon

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 1 / 3 = 33%
briankrakow - 3 / 3 = 100%
ChrisJarmick - 2 / 3 = 67%
firstcontact21 - 3 / 3 = 100%
macresarf1 - 1 / 3 = 33%
rogerebert.com - 3 / 3 = 100%

4. Performance by an actress in a supporting role

- Amy Adams in "Junebug" (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Catherine Keener in "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics)
- Frances McDormand in "North Country" (Warner Bros.)
- Rachel Weisz in "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features)
- Michelle Williams in "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features)

Winner: Rachel Weisz in "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features)

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Rachel Weisz
briankrakow - Rachel Weisz
ChrisJarmick - Rachel Weisz
firstcontact21 - Rachel Weisz
macresarf1 - Catherine Keener
rogerebert.com - Amy Adams

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 2 / 4 = 50%
briankrakow - 4 / 4 = 100%
ChrisJarmick - 3 / 4 = 75%
firstcontact21 - 4 / 4 = 100%
macresarf1 - 1 / 4 = 25%
rogerebert.com - 3 / 4 = 75%

macresarf1, the reverence I held for you is slipping! I thought you would be in the lead of predictions that were right, not predictions that were wrong! This race is becoming as interesting as the Academy Awards...

5. Best animated feature film of the year

- "Howl's Moving Castle" (Buena Vista), Hayao Miyazaki
- "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride" (Warner Bros.), Tim Burton and Mike Johnson
- "Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" (DreamWorks Animation SKG), Nick Park and Steve Box

Winner: "Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit" (DreamWorks Animation SKG), Nick Park and Steve Box

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Corpse Bride
briankrakow - Wallace & Gromit
ChrisJarmick - Wallace & Gromit
firstcontact21 - Wallace & Gromit
macresarf1 - Wallace & Gromit
rogerebert.com - Wallace & Gromit

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 2 / 5 = 40%
briankrakow - 5 / 5 = 100%
ChrisJarmick - 4 / 5 = 80%
firstcontact21 - 5 / 5 = 100%
macresarf1 - 2 / 5 = 40%
rogerebert.com - 4 / 5 = 80%

macresarf1 is moving up and has now tied with BAMBO-BAMBO. But ChirsJarmick and rogerebert are moving in on the lead held by briankrakow and firstcontact21... and there are still 19 more predictions to consider... thank goodness we aren't playing for money here folks!

6. Achievement in art direction

- "Good Night, and Good Luck." (Warner Independent Pictures), Art Direction: Jim Bissell, Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
- "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" (Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Stuart Craig, Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
- "King Kong" (Universal), Art Direction: Grant Major, Set Decoration: Dan Hennah and Simon Bright
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Art Direction: John Myhre, Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau
- "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features), Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood, Set Decoration: Katie Spencer

Winner: "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Art Direction: John Myhre, Set Decoration: Gretchen Rau

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Good Night and Good Luck
briankrakow - King Kong
ChrisJarmick - King Kong
firstcontact21 - King Kong
macresarf1 - Pride and Prejudice
rogerebert.com - King Kong

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 2 / 6 = 33%
briankrakow - 5 / 6 = 83%
ChrisJarmick - 4 / 6 = 67%
firstcontact21 - 5 / 6 = 83%
macresarf1 - 2 / 6 = 33%
rogerebert.com - 4 / 6 = 67%

OMG! What an upset - a total shut-out for all predictors in this category! What a turn of events! My faith in Roger Ebert is slipping now too! Oh my, oh my, oh my...

7. Achievement in cinematography

- "Batman Begins" (Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Rodrigo Prieto
- "Good Night, and Good Luck.", Robert Elswit (Warner Independent Pictures)
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Dion Beebe
- "The New World" (New Line), Emmanuel Lubezki

Winner: "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Dion Beebe

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Brokeback Mountain
briankrakow - Good Night, and Good Luck.
ChrisJarmick - Memoirs of a Geisha
firstcontact21 - The New World (It was robbed I tell you, robbed!)
macresarf1 - Good Night, and Good Luck.
rogerebert.com - Good Night, and Good Luck.

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 2 / 7 = 29%
briankrakow - 5 / 7 = 71%
ChrisJarmick - 5 / 7 = 71%
firstcontact21 - 5 / 7 = 71%
macresarf1 - 2 / 7 = 33%
rogerebert.com - 4 / 7 = 67%

And ChrisJarmick helps the group avoid another total shutout as everyone else, for better or for worse, predicted this category WRONG!

8. Achievement in costume design

- "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" (Warner Bros.), Gabriella Pescucci
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Colleen Atwood
- "Mrs. Henderson Presents" (The Weinstein Company), Sandy Powell
- "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features), Jacqueline Durran
- "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox), Arianne Phillips

Winner: "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Colleen Atwood

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Pride & Prejudice
briankrakow - Memoirs of a Geisha
ChrisJarmick - Memoirs of a Geisha
firstcontact21 - Memoirs of a Geisha
macresarf1 - Pride & Prejudice
rogerebert.com - Pride & Prejudice

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 2 / 8 = 25%
briankrakow - 6 / 8 = 75%
ChrisJarmick - 6 / 8 = 75%
firstcontact21 - 6 / 8 = 75%
macresarf1 - 2 / 8 = 25%
rogerebert.com - 4 / 8 = 50%

Wow folks, this is intense. Who would've thought Ebert would be doing so badly at this point in the game?

9. Achievement in directing

- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Ang Lee
- "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics), Bennett Miller
- "Crash" (Lions Gate), Paul Haggis
- "Good Night, and Good Luck.", George Clooney (Warner Independent Pictures)
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), Steven Spielberg

Winner: "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Ang Lee

"...for the greatness of love itself." - Ang Lee

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Ang Lee
briankrakow - Ang Lee
ChrisJarmick - Ang Lee
firstcontact21 - Ang Lee
macresarf1 - Ang Lee
rogerebert.com - Ang Lee

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 9 = 33%
briankrakow - 7 / 9 = 78%
ChrisJarmick - 7 / 9 = 78%
firstcontact21 - 7 / 9 = 78%
macresarf1 - 3 / 9 = 33%
rogerebert.com - 5 / 9 = 56%

And the group returns to fine form, all predicting that Ang Lee would walk away with Oscar gold.

10. Best documentary feature

- "Darwin's Nightmare" (International Film Circuit), Hubert Sauper, A Mille et Une Production
- "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room", Alex Gibney and Jason Kliot, (Magnolia Pictures), An HDNet Films Production
- "March of the Penguins" (Warner Independent Pictures), Luc Jacquet and Yves Darondeau, A Bonne Pioche Production
- "Murderball" (THINKFilm), Henry-Alex Rubin and Dana Adam Shapiro, An Eat Films Production
- "Street Fight", Marshall Curry, A Marshall Curry Production

Winner: "March of the Penguins" (Warner Independent Pictures), Luc Jacquet and Yves Darondeau, A Bonne Pioche Production

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - March of the Penguins
ChrisJarmick - March of the Penguins
firstcontact21 - March of the Penguins
macresarf1 - March of the Penguins
rogerebert.com - March of the Penguins

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 9 = 33%
briankrakow - 8 / 10 = 80%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 10 = 80%
firstcontact21 - 8 / 10 = 80%
macresarf1 - 4 / 10 = 40%
rogerebert.com - 6 / 10 = 60%

macresarf1 did note in his review that BAMBO-BAMBO only provided 13 predictions, and as such, his final tally will only reflect what he got out of the 13 predictions he made. The same will be applied from now on for all others who choose not to predict any particular category (think of it as an abstension - they don't count toward a vote). Of course, I'm totally assuming BAMBO-BAMBO is a guy. If he's a girl, then please take the the masculine gender and the singular to be construed as the feminine gender and the plural where the context so requires (that should make the lawyers reading this titillate).

11. Best documentary short subject

- "The Death of Kevin Carter: Casualty of the Bang Bang Club", Dan Krauss, A Dan Krauss Production
- "God Sleeps in Rwanda", Kimberlee Acquaro and Stacy Sherman, An Acquaro/Sherman Production
- "The Mushroom Club", Steven Okazaki, A Farallon Films Production
- "A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin", Corinne Marrinan and Eric Simonson, A NomaFilms Production

Winner: "A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin", Corinne Marrinan and Eric Simonson, A NomaFilms Production

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - NO PREDICTION
ChrisJarmick - God Sleeps in Rwanda
firstcontact21 - God Sleeps in Rwanda
macresarf1 - A Note of Triumph
rogerebert.com - NO PREDICTION

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 9 = 33%
briankrakow - 8 / 10 = 80%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 11 = 73%
firstcontact21 - 8 / 11 = 73%
macresarf1 - 5 / 11 = 45%
rogerebert.com - 6 / 10 = 60%

It seems the smart people were those who abstained, except for macresarf1 whose wealth of knowledge saves the day and helps his ranking! What would Jon Stewart have to say? Or Howie Mandel for that matter? Or Donald Trump? Who knows...

12. Achievement in film editing

- "Cinderella Man" (Universal and Miramax), Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
- "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features), Claire Simpson
- "Crash" (Lions Gate), Hughes Winborne
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), Michael Kahn
- "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox), Michael McCusker

Winner: "Crash" (Lions Gate), Hughes Winborne

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Brokeback Mountain
briankrakow - Crash
ChrisJarmick - Munich
firstcontact21 - Cinderella Man
macresarf1 - Crash
rogerebert.com - Crash

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 10 = 30%
briankrakow - 9 / 11 = 81%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 12 = 67%
firstcontact21 - 8 / 12 = 73%
macresarf1 - 6 / 12 = 50%
rogerebert.com - 7 / 11 = 64%

macresarf1 and rogerebert are both making come backs! It's shaping up to be a tight race indeed!

13. Best foreign language film of the year

- "Don't Tell", Italy, A Cattleya/Rai Cinema Production
- "Joyeux Noël", France, A Nord-Ouest Production
- "Paradise Now", Palestine, An Augustus Film Production
- "Sophie Scholl - The Final Days", Germany, A Goldkind Filmproduktion and Broth Film Production
- "Tsotsi", South Africa, A Moviworld Production

Winner: "Tsotsi", South Africa, A Moviworld Production

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - Joyeux Noël
ChrisJarmick - Paradise Now
firstcontact21 - Tsotsi
macresarf1 - Tsotsi
rogerebert.com - Tsotsi

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 10 = 30%
briankrakow - 9 / 12 = 75%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 13 = 62%
firstcontact21 - 9 / 13 = 69%
macresarf1 - 7 / 13 = 54%
rogerebert.com - 8 / 12 = 67%

14. Achievement in makeup

- "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" (Buena Vista), Howard Berger and Tami Lane
- "Cinderella Man" (Universal and Miramax), David Leroy Anderson and Lance Anderson
- "Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith", (20th Century Fox), Dave Elsey and Nikki Gooley

Winner: "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" (Buena Vista), Howard Berger and Tami Lane

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - NO PREDICTION
ChrisJarmick - Star Wars: Episode III
firstcontact21 - The Chronicles of Narnia
macresarf1 - The Chronicles of Narnia
rogerebert.com - The Chronicles of Narnia

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 10 = 30%
briankrakow - 9 / 12 = 75%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 14 = 57%
firstcontact21 - 10 / 14 = 71%
macresarf1 - 8 / 14 = 57%
rogerebert.com - 9 / 13 = 69%

WOW! rogerebert is pulling out all the punches and clawing his way back toward the top!

15. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Gustavo Santaolalla
- "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features), Alberto Iglesias
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), John Williams
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), John Williams
- "Pride & Prejudice" (Focus Features), Dario Marianelli

Winner: - "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Gustavo Santaolalla

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - Brokeback Mountain
ChrisJarmick - Munich
firstcontact21 - Brokeback Mountain
macresarf1 - The Constant Gardener
rogerebert.com - Brokeback Mountain

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 10 = 30%
briankrakow - 10 / 13 = 77%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 15 = 53%
firstcontact21 - 11 / 15 = 73%
macresarf1 - 8 / 15 = 53%
rogerebert.com - 10 / 14 = 71%

rogerebert.com is now in third place behind first place briankrakow and second place firstcontact21! Will he jump into second or even first in the predictions to come?!? Keep reading to find out...

16. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

- "In the Deep" from "Crash" (Lions Gate), Music by Kathleen "Bird" York and Michael Becker, Lyric by Kathleen "Bird" York
- "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow", Music and Lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard (Paramount Classics, MTV Films and New Deal Entertainment)
- "Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica" (The Weinstein Company and IFC Films), Music and Lyric by Dolly Parton

Winner: - "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow", Music and Lyric by Jordan Houston, Cedric Coleman and Paul Beauregard (Paramount Classics, MTV Films and New Deal Entertainment)

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - In the Deep
ChrisJarmick - Travelin' Thru
firstcontact21 - Travelin' Thru (A nice safe, white country music song. That's gotta win, right?)
macresarf1 - Travelin' Thru
rogerebert.com - Travelin' Thru

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 10 = 30%
briankrakow - 10 / 14 = 71%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 16 = 50%
firstcontact21 - 11 / 16 = 69%
macresarf1 - 8 / 16 = 50%
rogerebert.com - 10 / 15 = 67%

Wow. I must say, I'm disappointed. Overall, most of the group showed their tendency for being white by choosing the nice, safe Travelin' Thru as their INCORRECT choice to win in this category. Of course, I mean no disrespect when I say "white." Even Jon Stewart (among others) got some pokes in about how this unexpected song that won.

17. Best motion picture of the year

- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Diana Ossana and James Schamus, Producers, A River Road Entertainment Production
- "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics), Caroline Baron, William Vince and Michael Ohoven, Producers, An A-Line Pictures/Cooper's Town/Infinity Media Production
- "Crash" (Lions Gate), Paul Haggis and Cathy Schulman, Producers, A Bob Yari/DEJ/Blackfriar's Bridge/Harris Company/ApolloProscreen GmbH & Co./Bull's Eye Entertainment Production
- "Good Night, and Good Luck.", Grant Heslov, Producer, (Warner Independent Pictures), A Good Night Good Luck LLC Production
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg and Barry Mendel, Producers, A Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Pictures Production

Winner: "Crash" (Lions Gate), Paul Haggis and Cathy Schulman, Producers, A Bob Yari/DEJ/Blackfriar's Bridge/Harris Company/ApolloProscreen GmbH & Co./Bull's Eye Entertainment Production

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Brokeback Mountain
briankrakow - Brokeback Mountain
ChrisJarmick - Brokeback Mountain
firstcontact21 - Crash
macresarf1 - Brokeback Mountain
rogerebert.com - Crash

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 11 = 27%
briankrakow - 10 / 15 = 67%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 17 = 47%
firstcontact21 - 11 / 17 = 65%
macresarf1 - 8 / 17 = 47%
rogerebert.com - 11 / 16 = 69%

rogerebert.com moves into the lead! He's not a putz after all.

18. Best animated short film

- "Badgered", Sharon Colman, A National Film and Television School Production
- "The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation", John Canemaker and Peggy Stern, A John Canemaker Production
"The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello", (Monster Distributes), A 3D Films Production, Anthony Lucas
- "9", Shane Acker, A Shane Acker Production
- "One Man Band", Andrew Jimenez and Mark Andrews, A Pixar Animation Studios Production

Winner: "The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation", John Canemaker and Peggy Stern, A John Canemaker Production

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - NO PREDICTION
ChrisJarmick - One Man Band
firstcontact21 - One Man Band
macresarf1 - One Man Band
rogerebert.com - NO PREDICTION

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 11 = 27%
briankrakow - 10 / 15 = 67%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 18 = 44%
firstcontact21 - 11 / 18 = 61%
macresarf1 - 8 / 18 = 44%
rogerebert.com - 11 / 16 = 69%

Once again, those that abstained were able to stay in the lead...

19. Best live action short film

- "Ausreisser (The Runaway)", Ulrike Grote, A Hamburg Media School, Filmwerkstatt Production
- "Cashback" (The British Film Institute), Sean Ellis and Lene Bausager, A Left Turn Films Production
- "The Last Farm", Rúnar Rúnarsson and Thor S. Sigurjónsson, A Zik Zak Filmworks Production
- "Our Time Is Up", Rob Pearlstein and Pia Clemente, A Station B Production
- "Six Shooter" (Sundance Film Channel), Martin McDonagh, A Missing in Action Films and Funny Farm Films Production

Winner: "Six Shooter" (Sundance Film Channel), Martin McDonagh, A Missing in Action Films and Funny Farm Films Production

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - NO PREDICTION
ChrisJarmick - Our Time is Up
firstcontact21 - NO PREDICTION
macresarf1 - Six Shooter
rogerebert.com - NO PREDICTION

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 11 = 27%
briankrakow - 10 / 15 = 67%
ChrisJarmick - 8 / 19 = 42%
firstcontact21 - 11 / 18 = 61%
macresarf1 - 9 / 19 = 47%
rogerebert.com - 11 / 16 = 69%

And once again, those who abstained were able to maintain some sort of dignity, while macresarf1 proves that he is still the king... who will win the predictions showdown... read on... read on!

20. Achievement in sound editing

- "King Kong" (Universal), Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Wylie Stateman
- "War of the Worlds" (Paramount and DreamWorks), Richard King

Winner: "King Kong" (Universal), Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - NO PREDICTION
briankrakow - King Kong
ChrisJarmick - King Kong
firstcontact21 - King Kong
macresarf1 - War of the Worlds
rogerebert.com - King Kong

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 11 = 27%
briankrakow - 11 / 16 = 69%
ChrisJarmick - 9 / 20 = 45%
firstcontact21 - 12 / 19 = 63%
macresarf1 - 10 / 20 = 50%
rogerebert.com - 12 / 17 = 71%

21. Achievement in sound mixing

"The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" (Buena Vista), Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson
- "King Kong" (Universal), Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek
- "Memoirs of a Geisha" (Sony Pictures Releasing), Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett
- "Walk the Line" (20th Century Fox), Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland
- "War of the Worlds" (Paramount and DreamWorks), Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Ronald Judkins

Winner: "King Kong" (Universal), Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - No Prediction
briankrakow - King Kong
ChrisJarmick - King Kong
firstcontact21 - King Kong
macresarf1 - Walk the Line
rogerebert.com - The Chronicles of Narnia

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 3 / 11 = 27%
briankrakow - 12 / 17 = 71%
ChrisJarmick - 10 / 21 = 48%
firstcontact21 - 13 / 20 = 65%
macresarf1 - 10 / 21 = 48%
rogerebert.com - 12 / 18 = 67%

so close... briankrakow in the lead, followed by rogerebert (hoping to not have to shell out money on a trip to Mexico), followed by firstcontact21 who hopes to leapfrog to number 1...

22. Achievement in visual effects

- "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe" (Buena Vista), Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar
- "King Kong" (Universal), Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor
- "War of the Worlds" (Paramount and DreamWorks), Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randal M. Dutra and Daniel Sudick

Winner: "King Kong" (Universal), Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - King Kong
briankrakow - King Kong
ChrisJarmick - King Kong
firstcontact21 - King Kong
macresarf1 - King Kong
rogerebert.com - King Kong

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 4 / 12 = 33%
briankrakow - 13 / 18 = 72%
ChrisJarmick - 11 / 22 = 50%
firstcontact21 - 14 / 21 = 67%
macresarf1 - 11 / 22 = 50%
rogerebert.com - 13 / 19 = 69%

I could be wrong, but I think that this may be the first time everyone got the answer right! Good work group!

23. Adapted screenplay

- "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana
- "Capote" (UA/Sony Pictures Classics), Screenplay by Dan Futterman
- "The Constant Gardener" (Focus Features), Screenplay by Jeffrey Caine
- "A History of Violence" (New Line), Screenplay by Josh Olson
- "Munich" (Universal and DreamWorks), Screenplay by Tony Kushner and Eric Roth

Winner: "Brokeback Mountain" (Focus Features), Screenplay by Larry McMurtry & Diana Ossana

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Brokeback Mountain
briankrakow - Brokeback Mountain
ChrisJarmick - Brokeback Mountain
firstcontact21 - Brokeback Mountain
macresarf1 - Capote
rogerebert.com - Brokeback Mountain

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 5 / 13 = 39%
briankrakow - 14 / 19 = 74%
ChrisJarmick - 12 / 23 = 52%
firstcontact21 - 15 / 22 = 68%
macresarf1 - 11 / 23 = 48%
rogerebert.com - 14 / 20 = 70%

The penultimate category solidifies briankrakow's lead, and he's followed closely by rogerebert, who is followed closely by firstcontact21! What will happen... what will happen?!??!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!?!??

24. Original screenplay

- "Crash" (Lions Gate), Screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Story by Paul Haggis
- "Good Night, and Good Luck.", Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov, (Warner Independent Pictures)
- "Match Point" (DreamWorks), Written by Woody Allen
- "The Squid and the Whale" (Samuel Goldwyn Films and Sony Pictures Releasing), Written by Noah Baumbach
- "Syriana" (Warner Bros.), Written by Stephen Gaghan

Winner: "Crash" (Lions Gate), Screenplay by Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco, Story by Paul Haggis

Predictions...

BAMBO-BAMBO - Good Night, and Good Luck.
briankrakow - Crash
ChrisJarmick - Good Night, and Good Luck.
firstcontact21 - Crash
macresarf1 - Match Point
rogerebert.com - Crash

Tally...

BAMBO-BAMBO - 5 / 14 = 36%
briankrakow - 15 / 20 = 75%
ChrisJarmick - 12 / 24 = 50%
firstcontact21 - 16 / 23 = 70%
macresarf1 - 11 / 24 = 46%
rogerebert.com - 15 / 21 = 71%

Conclusion...

Wow! What a race! Here are the winners...

1. GOLD: briankrakow - 15 / 20 = 75%
2. SILVER: rogerebert.com - 15 / 21 = 71%
3. BRONZE: firstcontact21 - 16 / 23 = 70%
4. ChrisJarmick - 12 / 24 = 50%
5. macresarf1 - 11 / 24 = 46%
6. BAMBO-BAMBO - 5 / 14 = 36%

It's really sad that firstcontact21 didn't abstain on the other short subject categories, like briankrakow and rogerebert did. If he'd done that he would've snatched the gold with 16 / 20 or 80%. So for all you Oscar predictors out there, especially those who enter Oscar pools - remember to always abstain from the categories you aren't 100% certain on.

And regarding ChirsJarmick, if you were to include the category vote changes he made later in the game (i.e. the changes he made that went against his gut instinct), he would have been able to take his score of 12, add 3, and then subtract 1 for a new total of 14 / 24 = 58%.

So an amazing race everyone - Epinions.com should nominate briankrakow for beating Ebert's number of predictions! Look what he could win:

"Outguess Ebert

You could be winging your way to an all-expenses-paid vacation to the Mexican Riviera if you manage to best the master at his own game.

The grand prize winner who outguesses Ebert will receive a five-night trip for two to Allegro Playacar in Riviera Maya, Mexico. Six first-prize winners will receive a three night trip for two to the same resort.

All trips are courtesy of Apple Vacations, and will include air transport, hotel accommodations, and all meals and drinks.

In addition, 10 second-prize winners will receive an autographed copy of Roger Ebert's Movie Yearbook 2006, featuring reviews, interviews and essays.
"

And we're not kidding - take a look at the details here:

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060218/OSCARS/602190301

And that's all she wrote!

(c) March 6, 2006 - Steven H. Lee

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