Speeddemon531's 2007 Grammy Award Predictions (Part One, Rock) Feb 02 '07 (Updated Feb 11 '07)    Write an essay on this topic. Tweet The Bottom Line Let's bring back Soy Bomb!! Over the past couple of years, it's become something of a tradition for me to post my predictions on who'll win the trophies at the annual Grammy Award ceremony. The Grammys, for those who have been living under a rock for the past fifty years, honor the best and brightest in the music industry. Well...maybe I should put best and brightest in quotation marks, considering that the folks at the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences have made some fairly embarrassing gaffes over the years. For those of you wondering why I do this every year, it's fun. I enjoy putting on my Miss Cleo hat (complete wit fake Jah-maican accent, mon!) and playing psychic. As a certified music industry geek, this show is also right up my alley. I think I have a pretty good handle on what the people who vote for these awards like...case in point being my pretty decent (if I were to average, I'd say 60-70%) success rate with predictions. This year's nominees are a fairly eclectic bunch: from R&B diva to Mary J. Blige to alt-funk duo Gnarls Barkley. From the prince of pop Justin Timberlake to rock veterans Red Hot Chili Peppers and country/pop outcasts The Dixie Chicks, there are plenty of artists in line for the top prizes this year. As usual, I'll be breaking the nominees down by genre, and I'm starting off with rock. Why? Because this is the category where I usually have the least success! Ha!! This year's nominees split the difference between legends, with a few new jacks thrown in and the occasional head-scratcher (i.e. piano-led The Fray nominated in the rock categories). Also, for the third consecutive year, there is no category for Best Female Rock Performance, although I would imagine there's no shortage of female rockers capable of being nominated (even if you include just the old guard-Bonnie Raitt and Sinead O' Connor are still rockin', and I think Pink qualifies as a rocker, too!). Anyway, hand me the envelopes, please... Best Rock Song (awarded to the songwriters) Nominees: "Chasing Cars" (Snow Patrol), "Dani California" (Red Hot Chili Peppers), "Lookin' For A Leader" (Neil Young), "Someday Baby" (Bob Dylan), "When You Were Young" (The Killers) Will Win: Dylan Should Win: Snow Patrol Actual Winner: "Dani California" (Red Hot Chili Peppers) As in most categories, picking the winner boils down to simple process of elimination. While Neil Young made a very timely record in a political sense, "Living With War" didn't sell much, so the recognition factor is higher for the other four nominees and their songs. Snow Patrol's song is my favorite of the bunch, but they're still a little bit under the radar. Something tells me that the folks who vote (artists and label folks) don't like mouthy Brandon Flowers too much, so that eliminates The Killers. This might be the year for RHCP, but "Dani California" just isn't much of a song, so I'm hesitant to predict them as a winner. Grammy voters love Bob Dylan, his song has some hipster cred (it was in a freakin' iPod commercial), and his latest album sold over a million copies in a weak sales environment AND was inexplicably looked over for Album of the Year. I pick Mr. Zimmerman to win this category. Best Rock Album Nominees: "Try!" (The John Mayer Trio), "Highway Companion" (Tom Petty), "Broken Boy Soldiers" (The Raconteurs), "Stadium Arcadium" (Red Hot Chili Peppers), "Living With War" (Neil Young) Will Win: RHCP Should Win: RHCP Actual Winner: "Stadium Arcadium" (Red Hot Chili Peppers) This is simple enough. Neil Young and Tom Petty will split the old-fogey vote. John Mayer really doesn't fit in this category (trio or not), and The Raconteurs album left a lot of people (including me) with that "this wasn't as good as I thought it would be" taste in their mouths. The Chili Peppers have all the ingredients it takes to snag this award in similar fashion to the last two bands to win in this category: U2 & Green Day. Best Rock Solo Performance Nominees: "Nausea" (Beck), "Someday Baby" (Bob Dylan), "Route 66" (John Mayer), "Saving Grace" (Tom Petty), "Lookin' For A Leader" (Neil Young) Will Win: Bob Dylan Should Win: (shrugs) Dylan? Actual Winner: "Someday Baby" (Bob Dylan) This looks like it's gonna be Dylan's year in the rock categories. This category posts Mr. Dylan and two other grizzled rock vets against (relatively) young bucks Beck and John Mayer. Again, I think the deciding factor when it comes to who wins in this category is exposure, as opposed to actual song quality. Beck's record flopped, and Young and Petty's albums did reasonably well without much fanfare. Mayer might have a chance here, but this song is from the "Cars" soundtrack, not one of the two albums he released during the nomination period. I say Bob gets it again, and rightfully so. Best Rock Performance by a Duo or Group, Vocal Nominees: "Talk" (Coldplay), "How To Save a Life" (The Fray), "Steady, As She Goes" (The Raconteurs), "Dani California" (Red Hot Chili Peppers), "The Saints Are Coming" (U2 & Green Day) Will Win: U2 & Green Day Should Win: The Raconteurs Actual Winner: "Dani California" (Red Hot Chili Peppers) Process of elimination again, folks. The Fray aren't considered "rock" (although I suppose they rock as hard as Joe Jackson or Billy Joel). Coldplay's entry actually came out in 2005 (it was released as a single in '06, hence the nomination). This leaves three bands who could very possibly win this award. A sneak win by The Raconteurs (whose "Steady, As She Goes" was an irresistible single) could happen, and The Peppers could win this if they have momentum going, but the folks at NARAS love superstar collaborations. They also love U2 (who have 19 Grammys to their name) and Green Day (3 time winners). I can't imagine them not giving this teaming at least some props. Best Alternative Music Performance Nominees: "Whatever People Say I Am, That's What I'm Not" (Arctic Monkeys), "At War With The Mystics" (The Flaming Lips), "St. Elsewhere" (Gnarls Barkley), "Show Your Bones" (Yeah Yeah Yeahs), "The Eraser" (Thom Yorke) Will Win: Gnarls Barkley Should Win: Gnarls Barkley Actual Winner: "St. Elsewhere" (Gnarls Barkley) Meh. Are Gnarls Barkley really "alternative"? I mean, "St. Elsewhere" was really no more off-center from contemporary R&B as the average Prince album. Nevertheless, Cee-Lo and Danger Mouse are the only one of the five acts here to get love in the major categories, and that's usually an arbiter of who'll win in the genre-specific categories. Another arbiter is record sales, and the fact of the matter is that the Gnarls album has outsold the four other nominees combined. Thom Yorke may post a challenge, but I'd put my money on Gnarls Barkley winning this award. Best Hard Rock Performance Nominees: "Crazy Bee-yi-ee-i-itch" (Buckcherry), "Every Day Is Exactly The Same" (Nine Inch Nails), "Lonely Day" (System of a Down), "Vicarious" (Tool), "Woman" (Wolfmother) Will Win: Tool Should Win: Tool Actual Winner: "Woman" (Wolfmother) The inclusion of the critically reviled Buckcherry in this category is sure to raise eyebrows, but the band did make one of this year's more improbable comebacks, closing in on a million sold of their "15" album. The NIN track comes from an old album, so that probably spoils it's chances, although it might be my favorite track of the bunch (it's the only one of the five on my iPod, anyway). Wolfmother are too new and are still fairly obscure, so that leaves SOAD (whose track only FEELS old although it came out at the very end of '05) and Tool, who came back this year with much fanfare and solid sales. I'd bet on Maynard and Co. to cop this Grammy. Best Metal Performance Nominees: "Redneck" (Lamb of God), "Colony of Birchmen" (Mastodon), "Lies, Lies, Lies" (Ministry), "Eyes of the Insane" (Slayer), "30/30-150" (Stone Sour) Will Win: Ha! Should Win: I'll default to a more knowledgeable source-anyone wanna help me out? Winner: "Eyes of the Insane" (Slayer) OK, in this category, I'm totally out of my league. I might have to shoot the prediction in this category over to my buddy Mike (AKA netnut746. While I know who all of these bands are (three of the five nominees have albums distributed by the company I work for), and I'll admit to listening to and liking what I've heard of Stone Sour, I am no metalhead. So I'll have to get back to y'all on this one. Final Tally: 3 out of 6 categories So ends the rock categories. I'll be back next time to handicap the rap categories, and I'll also post the results of my prognosticating after the Grammy telecast airs on Sunday, February 11th. See ya then!!

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