The HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray Format War: Who Will Win? - Scapp70's Prediction
Nov 06 '07 (Updated Nov 21 '07)
The Bottom Line Feel free to comment.
Somewhere in The Electronic Fourth Dimension, there is a worship service taking place, let’s listen in…
“Now Brothers and Sisters, let us turn to the Holy Book of Edison and meditate on the origins of good and evil…
In the beginning, the earth was void of any discs capable of HD playback despite a growing craving for it. Sony and eight other Electronic Gods created the Blu-Ray Disc Association. The Electronic Gods looked and saw that it was good. The Gods were in accord, except for Toshiba that is. Toshiba was to be the fallen angel from Electronic Heaven. Toshiba decided to leave the Heaven where the Electronic Gods were concocting an HD alternative to Standard Play. Toshiba, the Devil, decided it could ascend to a higher heaven above the Blu-Ray Disc Association by creating an HD media of its own. O children, listen to the prophecy – The Blu-Ray will trample upon the evil HD-DVD and harmony will once again triumph throughout the land.”
Amen.
Sorry about that above, but the growing debate about which format will prevail in the format war almost calls for it. People on both sides of this format war can get pretty dramatic, and hopefully by the time I am through with this piece, you will agree that the end result will somewhat mirror the prophecy above made somewhere in the electronic fourth dimension, just not as blasphemous as that.
Microsoft Gets Sneaky
Earlier this year, (2007), everyone was in agreement (except Toshiba) that Blu-Ray was the horse to back. The majority of movie companies (Sony, Disney, Starz, Fox, MGM, Columbia/Tri-Star, Lions Gate) and electronic companies (Apple, Dell, Hewlett Packard, LG, Panasonic, Philips, Pioneer, Samsung, Sony, TDK) were on board with the Blu-Ray idea. In early 2007 at the EMA, HD-DVD panelists (made up of a rep from each Microsoft, Universal, Value Electronics and The Diffusion Group) were taking (sometimes hostel) questions from the small audience made up of industry people who were allowed in the room. The HD-DVD panel stated that although the sales of BD (Blu-Ray Discs) have outsold HD-DVD discs almost two to one, that there was no need to panic because they had a grand plan for success with winning the format war. The biggest bullet in their arsenal that day was the fact that Microsoft would release Vista, which is HD-DVD ready. Computers are in every home, so then, with Windows Vista, HD-DVD would be in every home. It sounds logical, doesn’t it? Well, the real reason why Microsoft and the HD-DVD panel didn’t lose the smirks on their faces was the knowledge that Microsoft was going to use its endless well of capital to bribe two major movie companies (DreamWorks & Paramount) into backing HD-DVD for an 18-month period of time (Sept 2007 - Feb 2009). When this contract expires, then Paramount & Dreamworks will be able to again release their movies in the Blu-Ray format. An extension of life was temporarily purchased at the sum of $150 Million. HD-DVD lives on for now.
Perhaps eighteen months would allow the time needed to go by for enough people to purchase their new computers equipped with the HD-DVD player and software inside? Perhaps, the extension on life was needed to borrow time in order for the recently leaked news of yet another newly improved XboxHD (or Entertainment Xbox), that is scheduled for release in a little over a year from now, possibly announced at CES? Before these sneaky maneuvers from Microsoft, the HD-DVD consumers were conceding defeat because of the month after month sales of Blu-Ray disc in comparison to HD-DVD. BD sales are consistently beating HD-DVD at just about 2-1 every week.
Transformers Released on HD-DVD
The result of the sneaky business tactics of Microsoft is that two big blockbuster movies will be exclusively released on HD-DVD: Transformers and Shrek the Third. So now (against Transformers director Michael Bay's wishes) the biggest box office smash from Paramount, Transformers is finally released exclusively on HD-DVD. Expectedly, the HD disc sale finally had some weight on the HD-DVD side of the scale. HD-DVD made a big move in sales in the week ending 10/21/07, and instead of the share reading the usual 71% BD - 29% HD-DVD, for that week it read 51% BD - 49% HD-DVD. The week ending for 10/28, HD-DVD dropped down to 45% while Blu-Ray slowly moves back into place, this week at only 55%.
Oddly enough, the HD-DVD consumers see this as something to crow about. Yet if you look at it logically from the BD side - this is the best that HD-DVD can do, and they can't even break the 50% mark! My guess is that we'll possibly have one more close week this year with the release of Shrek the Third, and then we'll close out the year with an annual sale share of 70% BD - 30% HD-DVD.
PS3 vs. Xbox360 (...or Xbox360-Elite, or XboxHD)
The debate gets even more heated when it comes to the PS3 and the Xbox360(various) game consoles getting thrown into the mix. On one side you have the Xbox consumers that will defend their game console to the very end, and rightly so.
The Xbox360 offers almost unmatched enjoyment when it comes to interactive gameplay over a broadband connection with other people around the country, although PS3 has made great strides in this area. Xbox also has the upper hand when it comes to the amount of quality games available vs. the ones for the PS3.
I hear the PS3 players bellyache about the limitations of the Xbox compared to the PS3 due to disc capacity. It all has to do with the fact that PS3 games are manufactured on the Blu-ray disc as opposed to Xbox360's dedication to the DVD format. The DVD is limited to 9.4 Gigs of memory as opposed to Blu-Ray's unmatched 50Gigs (dual-layered) of space. This capacity factor is just now starting to make a difference. For instance, with the release of Grand Theft Auto 4 coming in March of 2008. The game will be released on both systems and there is talk of how the games will differ due to Microsoft's DVD media limitations. (see this article: http://www.joystiq.com/2007/05/02/xbox-360-cant-handle-all-of-gta-iv/) This means that the graphics will be compressed to something like 480p and then unconverted to 720p, 1080i or 1080p through the Xbox360, while the PS3 version will have room to spare on its Blu-Ray disc with the video and sound uncompressed for a more immersing gaming experience. Yet, the 360 does fire back with exclusive content for the game available as ‘downloadable content’ and with Xbox’s track record, it probably comes at a price. For more reading on capacity issues read here: http://www.cdfreaks.com/news/Concerns-Over-Xbox-360-DVD-9-Media-Capacity.html.
The Main Reason Why Blu-Ray Will Win
When I first heard of another format after DVD was coming, I’ll admit that I was more than pissed as I looked over at my 750+ DVD collection (http://www.invelos.com/dvdcollection.aspx/Scapp70). But when I finally made the leap and bought my first HD TV, I understood the need for something bigger and better than DVD. My DVD player could not fulfill its duty as the vehicle for my movie library anymore; it just didn’t look good on a screen that was made for so much more. It does make sense, and I needed to make my decision now between the two. I waited about eight months and then went with Blu-Ray because
1. the movie studio backing
2. the larger capacity
3. admittedly, because Disney backed it (I love Disney)
4. the PS3 factor
5. Most of the electronic companies seemed to favor this as well.
6. HD-DVD is limited to 30GB per disc where as Blu-Ray has just recently expanded to 100GB per disc and will soon reach the 200GB mark for consumer use. Read here http://www.techgadgets.in/storage/2007/08/hitachi-intros-100-gb-blu-ray-disc-compatible-with-existing-drives/
Now, many people are invested in these formats, many of us have made the financial plunge into a new format. Most of us are trying to compensate by selling our old DVDs on eBay as we replace with the HD discs. The very fact that most of us have bought Blu-Ray players (either through stand alone players or via PS3) is the main reason why it has to win. It’s because the people, as well as industry leaders have already decided who the winner is. The people have been purchasing BD over HD-DVD discs at about a 70% - 30% ratio.
If Microsoft has its way, they will be forcing the HD consumers to change formats yet again in such a small amount of time. There is no debate about who will win because Blu-Ray has already won. The people have already spoken with their cash and credit cards.
The Electronic Timeline
1970s/1980s
Big and bulky VHS tapes becomes mainstream, people buy & collect them for home enjoyment.
1996/1997
DVDs are released and as prices decrease the media becomes even more popular than VHS
1999 - 2006
Little by little, more and more consumers are purchasing large HDTV's. HD becomes popular on cable and satellite companies.
2006
Two new formats are announced, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. HD-DVD is released in the second quarter of 2006; Blu-Ray follows later in the year.
2007
After a year of both formats battling for the sales from the consumers, Blu-Ray has constantly beat HD-DVD in disc sales week after week, most of the time at about a two to one ratio.
*2008
Warner Brothers Studios has released titles for both formats, but after watching the fourth quarter sales of 2007, they decide to step up in order to speed up to the end of the format war and become exclusive to the Blu-Ray format.
A tremendous blow to HD-DVD. Sales are at about a three to one ratio now in favor of Blu-Ray and climbing.
In the fourth quarter Microsoft will release XboxHD, the new format for Xbox where the games will be on HD-DVD discs now (backwards compatible to Xbox360 of course).
*2009
In the fourth quarter of 2009 at CES, Microsoft announces the new Xbox console with built in Blu-Ray player. HD-DVD machines and discs sell for high prices on eBay the same way DIVX movies had at first. We only have an embarrassing memory for those who vehemently backed the HD-DVD format.
*2010
The new format is announced, Purple-Ray. Prince becomes the format's mascot and Purple Rain is the first disc released in this format.
*Future dates on the timeline are merely speculation and cannot be viewed as facts despite how probable they may seem
Legend
EMA - Entertainment Merchants Association
BD - Blu-Ray Discs
HD-DVD - High Definition Digital Video Discs
PS3 - Play Station 3
The Diffusion Group - a research company based on broadband connectivity
Value Electronics - An electronics outlet which sells DirecTV and HD-DVD players among other electronics.
CES - Consumer Electronics Association
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Member: Michael Scapp
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