kurt_h's Full Review: Ray Kurzweil - The Age of Spiritual Machines: When...
"The Age of Spiritual Machines" is a book extrapolating trends in information processing by Ray Kurzweil.
What can one say about Ray Kurzweil that hasn't been said before? He is a man who has taken on some of the most difficult tasks in computing and has succeeded where many predicted failure. Continuous speech to text work can be traced to Kurzweil. Automated poetry has roots in his programming. And his predictions over the past couple of decades for what machines will be capable of doing have been mostly accurate. So when he starts to opine on the future of computers and humanity we should all sit up and listen...
And when you do listen realize that for all of his capabilities he is not an evolutionary biologist nor a quantum physicist. What he does do, like anyone trying to keep up with the sciences and technology, is remain open to changes in fields that may not immediately reflect upon computing and the information sciences in an attempt to craft an understand of how our technologies are changing. Thus he becomes a good interpreter of Moore's Law (and its revisions), increased storage capacity for machines and paradigms in genetic algorithms and neural networking which will probably usher in the next phase of sophisticated computing. His attempts to draw all of this into an overarching concept that includes evolution and progress is doomed, however, as he mis-perceives evolution as a ladder reaching to some point (in this case cognition) and that ladder leads to the technology which in and of itself progresses.
The misperception of increasing complexity in living organisms over time is a natural one for those who try to invoke 'progress' as a concept in evolution. What we actually see in the realm of complexity is the fact that almost all of the biota on planet Earth is simple and exists very close to the wall where simplicity and life meet. Evolution is truly unguided, in a complexity sense, and thinking that evolution is striving to create consciousness is a result of not realizing that the complexity we see in consciousness is result of random influences and biased selectivity. Its just another experiment by nature which may or may not prove its value. Thus, when Ray Kurzweil starts his discussion of the future of change and tries to link it to the time frame of evolution as a mover for DIRECTED change the reader must understand the bias that consciousness brings to the table, in this case Mr. Kurzweil's optimistic attitude towards change.
I do not argue that Mr. Kurzweil's analysis of human based change is correct, but the linkage between undirected change in a biased environment and directed change in a biased environment are two different areas for review due to the types of results they yield. Once he moves from trying to make a progressive law of change and gets into the modern technological change that has actually happened over the last century or so he is on much firmer ground and starts to make sense.
Current trends, as seen in 1999, when extrapolated on the growth of the current technology base yields some interesting concepts. Nanotechnology will move from the laboratory and a realm of 'proof of concept' materials to actual production of machines and computers within 10 years. Added to this will be processing powers a few orders of magnitude higher than that available to today's PC, with 'super computers' nearing the processing power of the human brain through the use of hardware and software which mimics neural connectivity. This advance will have allowed the human genome to be processed completely and most of the major protein structures resulting from the genome to be similarly analyzed. Taken combinatorially, this allows nanodevices to be used to stop the slow decay of an individual's genetic structure and insert new code as needed to fix genetic defects. This same technology will allow for replacement sensory apparatus for sight (although maybe not as good as human vision) and sound (as good or better than human normal). In addition, gross problems involving nerve damage that can not be easily repaired will either be routed around or be routed to external servo mechanisms to assist in leg and arm movement.
That is the world of 2009 as seen by Ray Kurzweil. The progressive change in computing power to assist in human creativity, manufacturing and economics will be put to uses in assisting each individual to lead more fully active lives. One of the facts that Mr. Kurzweil does not address is the addition of human life span per year soon reaching a 1:1 ratio by 2009. Currently the figure rests at 4 years for technology to add 1 year to the human life span. As this has been hooked into Moore's Law for over two decades, progress in non-invasive scanning techniques, simple surgical techniques to clean out clogged arteries and improved medications to ameliorate underlying problems have all added significantly to our life spans. Medication and physical devices have not gotten less expensive to date as manufacturing of both have not come under the purview of Moore's Law, and THAT is about to change.
So what is Moore's Law? Simply stated (and Gordon Moore has revised it once): the number of transistors that can occupy a given circuit board space doubles every 2 years (revised once to 18 months and now to 1 year). And as circuit traces get shorter, the speed of the overall circuit increases also. Taken as a whole this means that for a given price point circuitry nearly quadruples in capacity for processing information every year. Moore's Law for flat circuitry is expected to be repealed by 2015, when circuit traces are 5-6 atoms across and electrons start to be influenced by quantum mechanics. There is no practical repeal date for 3 dimensional circuitry as new and different approaches to computing start to emerge in that realm.
By 2019, extrapolating the trends of the given technology base, the concept of getting old will have effectively stopped for most of the industrialized world. Augmentation of human senses, memory and thought processes can begin based on building in new capabilities via nanotechnology. Nanotech devices will be able to keep track of an individual's health on a cellular level and stop problems such as cancer from happening. The $1,000 price point PC will have the capability of a human mind and will be programmed accordingly. 'Supercomputers' will have the processing capability of thousands to tens of thousands of people. Virtual reality and 'real' reality will be blended with individuals partaking of both and only a limitation on tactile and olfactory senses will keep these realities from overlapping on a full time basis.
Mr. Kurzweil goes on to take a look at 2029 and 2099, but for me the haze of predictability really stops an effective view that far out. What is obvious is that the way we approach who and what we are will have to change greatly. Humanity will need to augment itself on an individual by individual basis to cope with the amount of change in the world. To do so we will have to accept that technology into our bodies and our very thought processes for that transition to happen. As was pointed out by James Burke in his CONNECTIONS series and echoed strongly by Ray Kurzweil here: once humanity stepped on to the escalator of accepting technological change it CAN NOT step off. To try and stop technological change, or even move backwards, would require the die-off of the majority of the human race.
As beings who have learned to accept the dignity of the lives of others and the fact that technology has helped us to achieve a better life for all except the poorest of individuals, we will come face to face with the fact that this double embrace requires that we change who we are physically and mentally. For all of the wonderful examples of technology and how it can be applied, it is this fact that comes out clearly from "The Age of Spiritual Machines". We will create new, cyber-based individuals, of that there is no doubt; we will also become cyber-based individuals because the fullness of experience will be greater and the cost of entry will be effectively zero. This is change that the rich individuals and nations will undergo first, but expense will not be a barrier as the effective cost of increasing capability is zero through self-replicating nanotechnological devices and software.
Mr. Kurzweil does point out that there are possible 'failure states' which could wipe out all of mankind. Nanotech device that have run amok or software viruses that effectively kill off all programming or bioengineered viruses or bacteria that get us before we begin to make the transition from carbon to new substrates. It is unlikely that these will come about, which Mr. Kurzweil acknowledges is his optimistic turn of mind showing through. In any event this transition from human to post-human will take some time and will probably see a few setbacks, but it is pretty close to being inevitable.
And if you don't believe Ray Kurzweil, just check out where life expectancy and computer processing technology were 100 years ago. And then look to see how much of the change has occurred in the last 20 years....
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