Yet Another Response to Emlin's DVD Outlook
Jul 19 '00
Game Monkey says you can't buy a DVD-R now. But listen, my friends, and you shall hear, of a DVD-R which is very dear (dear meaning expensive -- in British lingo). Yes Virginia, you CAN buy a DVD-R, and you can buy it today, if you've got five grand to spare.
Game Monkey has posted an opinion on Emlin's editorial in which she explained why she's going to wait before investing in DVD technology. After giving some interesting background in the editorial of her personal experiences with the nascent VHS tape format, Emlin says she'll wait until recordable DVD's, i.e., DVD-R's, come around. Game Monkey then offers the argument that DVD's are now so inexpensive that, even with new technology around the corner, there's little reason not to go for DVD now.
To put things in perspective, it's really true: you can buy a DVD-R now. Pioneer currently has a DVD-R drive on the market. Naturally, you also have to have a PC with which to use Pioneer's new drive. You also have to have quite a bit of money, as the current street price on the drive is a bit above $5,000.
For personal use, this price tag will keep DVD-R beyond the reach of the average consumer's home-entertainment budget. Anybody who wants a digital video recording format for television will probably opt for one of the new hard-drive video recorders which sell for around $1,000.
Emlin has made an excellent point about the patterns of consumer electronic sales. She's exactly right that, just as the initial VHS VCR's had mammoth price tags, the currently-limited field of DVD-R drives is up at the stratospheric levels and now is the time to sit tight and wait, if you're considering the purchase of a DVD-R.
Sales of DVD players, on the other hand, have reached the point where the volume of sales, plus the competition for market share, has pushed prices down quite rapidly. Like most digital technology, a DVD player is practically a commodity item. There is little quality difference between one player and another (unless you get up into the very-pricey progressive scan audio models, but that's really another product category) so the consumer electronics companies have to mainly battle it out on price. As Game Monkey points out in his editorial, he's using an inexpensive ($149 at Best Buy, sale price) DVD player and has found the quality to be fine.
If I were you, I wouldn't worry about DVD becoming obsolete. First of all, even if DVD-R's become more popular, they'll be backwards-compatible with present DVD players, meaning they'll play today's DVD discs as well as recording onto tomorrow's. The DVD format will be around for a while because it is currently very popular and there is no reason for it to be pushed aside.
For any format to make inroads into DVD's place in the market as the format-of-choice for people who want a quality source of movies for home viewing, the new format would have to equal -- or better -- the qualities which have made DVD popular.
First of all, the new format would have to be very compact. DVD's are smaller than VHS tapes, meaning a retailer can stock a given amount of DVD's with less use of expensive retail space. Secondly, the format would have to give a very high-quality signal, matching or exceeding DVD's excellent sound and video specifications. Finally, the format would have to be inexpensive to manufacture. DVD's actually cost less to package and duplicate than VHS tapes. Unfortunately, the manufacturers don't pass these savings along to consumers. However, considering the superior quality of DVD's, the current price levels set by the informal motion-picture marketing cartels is still a bargain.
If you don't think it's true that DVD's could be sold for less than VHS tapes, take a look at the history of the CD. Some government prosecutors have strongly considered going after the record companies for their practices in pricing CD's since, although CD's actually cost less to manufacture than cassette tapes or vinyl, CD's, as any music fan will have noticed, sell for about 50% more than the older musical formats.
In any case, prices for movies on DVD probably won't get higher any time soon. In fact, as they drop down closer and closer to the prices for movies on VHS tape, the DVD format will continue to thrive. There should also be a very active market in used DVD movies, since, as long as they're not broken in half, used DVD's aren't really going to deteriorate with wear. That must-have Hollywood hit you buy on DVD today will be tomorrow's e-bay bargain.
To look into the specific pro's and con's of buying a DVD player, take a look at my review, "Why You Should NOT Buy a DVD Player" at http://www.epinions.com/elec-review-272E-5E618B0-3973F6AC-prod4.
UPDATE
The price of the Pioneer DVD-R drive has already begun to drop! You can order one from www.megahaus.com now, the model DVRS201 external SCSI-2 DVD-R drive for the bargain price of $3,999.00.
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