Old Razormouth 600
Written: Mar 25 '07
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Product Rating:
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Pros: Patrick presents a scenario with low probability and catastrophic potential impact.
Cons: Will our security apparatus be resilient enough to counter such a threat?
The Bottom Line: Recommend as scenario for detailed consideration by out-of-box planners, particularly at the NSC and military intelligence I&W cells.
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| wickengel's Full Review: Patrick Robinson - Barracuda 945 |
Barracuda 945 has been unjustly maligned because it has been miscategorized. Patrick Robinson's story is a scenario and playbook that might have come directly from the US National Security Council. The book is emphatically not literature--it does not pretend to be. In fact, Patrick has written an imaginative operations procedural meant to capture the imaginations of those whose job includes being prepared for the unthinkable. He has consulted experts who have served him well, and his story is frighteningly credible in ways he might not have intended.
The book is not about a simple plan concocted by gung-ho individuals with a limited view of operations. Instead, from the start the flavor of the work is geopolitical and economic with an alliance that should seem very contemporary: Iran and China cut a deal so that terrorists can wreak havoc on American vital assets from an invisible and nearly invulnerable nuclear submarine. That is, the unholy alliance of the PLA/Navy and the Iranian Revolutionary Council could happen, and the book is one man's informed opinion of how it might happen and what would result from that eventuality.
the dialog in the book is largely that used by military personnel, and the mechanics of operations are described in such detail that the professionals whom Patrick engaged to assure accuracy could affirm that plans could be executed as shown. This vetting includes not only military and intelligence roles and missions, but backgrounds and relationships of players on all sides.
Admiral Arnold Morgan, the American President's National Security Adviser, is point for the home team. His thought processes, staff support and power are consistent with his office. We can expect Patrick to have conducted detailed vetting of the submarine operations, command and control and the SEAL operation that finally destroys the locks of the Panama Canal. The cast of characters listed before the text of the work is a fictional subset of the actual players that would be involved in an action of this type. But they are representative. To achieve realism and scale, the book should have to be fifteen times its current length.
A disturbing element of the scenario is the assumption that the hostile forces (Iran and China) could agree to terms, make payments and transfers and then operate together within the same unit in the time allotted. This is the most speculative and problematic element of the playbook. Historically both Iran and China have been reluctant and contrary players. See, for example, the recent tussles between Iran and Russia where payments were the critical obstacle. Further, the dynamics between the Chinese PLA/Navy and the Chinese civilian authorities are ignored entirely.
Some might complain about another major factor in Patrick's construct, the SAS turncoat. That an outstanding military officer would change sides as dramatically as Patrick depicts is as old a story as the Greek general Alcibiades, who, spurned by his native land, went over to the enemy's side and marched against Greece. Historically, then, this switching of sides has happened; it could well happen again though the probability that a Sandhurst man or anyone playing SAS roles would turn colors is remote. Psychologically, a very fine line separates the superhero of one side from the other. If such a tyro were to be severed from the only life at which he can excel beyond all others, he will make shift to exercise that capability wherever he can. So it is with SAS commando Major Ray Kerman, who transformed into General Ravi Rashood, master terrorist.
Rather than quibble about details, let us ask a few critical questions:
1. Is an association of Iran and China focused on doing harm to American vital interests a probability?
2. Is export of a submarine such as Barracuda 945 conceivable along the lines shown in the book?
3. Would cruise missiles fired from such a stealthy platform as Barracuda 945 terrorize the US and cause significant panic?
4. Would the mere threat of any of the above possibilities be of interest to the National Security Council generally and National Security Advisor specifically?
In fact, the threat of Iranian submarines sinking a US aircraft carrier with Schkval torpedoes in the Strait of Hormuz is a topic of open blog speculation. Such a relatively minor action, followed by Chinese veto of subsequent UN action, would be a credible scenario.
Patrick's book, one hopes, is surely not prophecy. Probably the premise is stretched almost to the breaking point. But it holds enough of a warning to make planners think about the possibilities. Shame on our security apparatus for not anticipating such a threat and taking it very seriously indeed!
Recommended:
Yes
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Epinions.com ID:
wickengel
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Member: Wilson F. Engel III Ph.D.
Location: Nashua, NH
Reviews written: 260
Trusted by: 30 members
About Me:
Thinker, Writer, Editor, Inventor, Novelist: The Virtue of Baseball (www.puff-adder.com), Poet
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